China's Trade Ascendancy and Global Realignment - Pepe Escobar Interview on April 22, 2025

This is a structured summary of the key topics and the exchange between Pepe Escobar and Nima.

Introduction and Setting:

• The interview begins on Tuesday, April 22nd, 2025, with Nima welcoming back Pepe Escobar.
• Pepe Escobar mentions being in Hong Kong, which he considers one of his homes, and describes the current time there as significant.
• He had just arrived from Shanghai, where he experienced a period of intense activity and a feeling of being at the center of many events.

The Tariff War and China's Perspective:

• Nima asks about the tariff war and economic war between the United States and China and how people in China feel about the US.
• Pepe Escobar states that his first column attempts to answer this question, and the mood in China is one of defiant resistance against bullying.
• He notes that the "century of humiliation" is considered a thing of the past, and the Chinese are openly calling Americans "barbarians" at various levels, from taxi drivers to high-ranking diplomats and political analysts.
• Escobar shares his experience in Shanghai, where he gathered information from academic sources at Fudan University, media outlets like Guancha, and business people.
• He mentions visiting Guancha, meeting the new editor (formerly of the Global Times), and participating in a podcast. Guancha is described as having a leeway and measure of independence compared to official social media.
• Pepe Escobar highlights the Canton Fair in Guangdong Province, where 60,000 merchants gather with buyers from over 200 countries, illustrating China's role in global trade.
• He notes a consensus among many Chinese that they are now "running the show" globally in terms of trade.
• According to Escobar, the latest round of actions by the US is interpreted in China as extreme disrespect to the Chinese people, civilization, state, and international systems.
• He observed immense anger at every level in China regarding this.
• Escobar conveys a strong sense from the Chinese that "it's our turn" and they will not be dictated to by "barbarians," emphasizing their global partnerships and the potential for new trade deals, such as between the EU and China, arising from the tariffs.
• He felt a distinct sensation that China is now on the "front line of global resistance" against the US in trade and diplomacy.
• The Chinese attitude in international relations is described as unparalleled, driven by their trade, financial, and economic power.
• Referring to the history of British possession of Hong Kong, Escobar emphasizes that such a "century of humiliation" will never happen again, even metaphorically.
• He states that China has learned to rewire supply chains and trade relations and is no longer concerned about decoupling from the American economy.
• Pepe Escobar mentions the official stance from Beijing that a "tariff wielding barbarian can never expect China to make a call" to Donald Trump. This position has not changed because China was prepared for these tariffs since the beginning of Trump's first term.
• China has built international connections with Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN), Central Asia, Latin America, and Africa to counteract the tariffs.
• The Made in China 2025 initiative is discussed, where China aimed to become a leader in high-tech domains. Despite US sanctions, China has continued its progress and stopped publicly discussing the initiative.
• The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, visiting Beijing to assure China of their continued commitment despite US restrictions is cited as a significant example of the global business reaction to the tariff war.
• Escobar suggests that Trump and his administration do not understand the power of multilateral organizations or the fragility of the American economy.
• He attributes the US approach to xenophobia and racism.
• Pepe Escobar emphasizes that China's global influence is based on benefit and mutual trade, contrasting it with the US approach based on fear and security agreements.
• He believes China will use a "monster Sun Tzu move" to exploit the adversary's attacks to further unbalance them.

Internal Dynamics of China and Hong Kong:

• Pepe Escobar describes his experience exploring old "model quarters" in Shanghai and the pride of the residents in China's development.
• He discusses the mix of state-owned and private enterprises in China, calling it "socialism with Chinese characteristics" or sometimes resembling "neoliberalism with Chinese characteristics".
• Hong Kong's role as a middleman between the West and China has diminished since the 1997 handover. Now, Hong Kong focuses on services like finance, PR, and marketing.
• The Greater Bay Area concept, integrating Hong Kong with ten cities in the Pearl River Delta, is highlighted as a future development hub.
• The Atlanticist elites in Hong Kong pose a challenge to this integration, and many did not accept being part of China until the 2019 "color revolution," which was ultimately quashed.
• Hong Kong is now in a recovery phase and needs to focus on its role in the Greater Bay Area, offering its expertise to mainland China.
• There are complex relationships between Hong Kong and different parts of mainland China, with an easier relationship between Hong Kong and Shanghai compared to Hong Kong and Beijing.
• Even the South China Morning Post now reflects a need for Hong Kong to align with China against American pressure.

Global South and Multilateralism:

• Pepe Escobar emphasizes the growing support for China from the "global south," including Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia.
• He discusses the increasing importance and strength of multilateral organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
• The Belt and Road Initiative, with over 150 official partners, is mentioned as a key aspect of China's global reach.
• Xi Jinping's recent visits to Southeast Asian nations (Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia) are seen as strengthening these alliances against tariffs.
• Escobar suggests that Trump has already "lost half of Asia" economically, considering China and Southeast Asia.
• The cooperation between Iran, China, and Russia, particularly in response to sanctions and tariffs, is highlighted, with regular high-level discussions.
• He notes that the "tariff dementia" has inadvertently solidified cooperation among Asian and global south nations, potentially forming a "united global south front" against imperialism.
• This concept of a "united front" echoes Mao Zedong's terminology from the mid-20th century, and Escobar observes a revival of Mao and his slogans in China, including the idea of the US being a "paper tiger".
• The recent BRICS summit in Kazan is described as "immensely impressive," indicating the growing strength and unity of these organizations.
• Escobar draws a parallel between the current situation and the Bandung Conference and the potential for a strong global non-aligned movement.
• He believes the global south's reaction to the tariffs will demonstrate that bullying is over.

Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East:

• China views the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East as a "starter in the menu against a bigger war against them in the future".
• While the official position on the war in Ukraine is sensitive, many Chinese intellectuals see Russia as having its reasons for the SMO due to NATO pressure.
• There is no consensus in China on how forcefully to support Russia due to concerns about partners in the global south.
• China is actively learning military lessons from Russia's experience fighting the US and NATO in Ukraine.

Europe's Role:

• China sees an opening for a large trade deal with the European Union as Europeans seek a way out from being dominated by the US.
• A high-level European delegation is expected to visit Beijing to discuss this.

Negotiations Between Iran and the United States:

• Nima asks about the negotiations between Iran and the United States and the potential for success given Israeli opposition.
• Pepe Escobar prefers to wait and see, noting that initial sessions with the American delegation seemed somewhat positive.
• However, he emphasizes the significant pressure on the US from various factions.
• The success or failure of these negotiations largely depends on the US Special Envoy and whether he can convey Iran's rationality to Trump and build a minimal level of trust.

Conclusion:

• The interview concludes with Pepe Escobar offering to keep Nima updated on his upcoming trip to Iran and answer any further questions.

This summary captures the main points and the flow of the conversation between Pepe Escobar and Nima as presented in the provided transcript excerpts. A deep dive podcast can be found here.