Trump's Tariffs, China, and Global Power Shifts - A recount of Professor Shen Yi's Q&A on April 19, 2025

The provided source is a transcript of a YouTube video featuring Professor Shen. The discussion is primarily a dialogue between the host and Professor Shen, where the host raises topics or asks for Professor Shen's observations. There isn't a clearly demarcated Q&A session at the end in this excerpt. However, the entire discussion revolves around questions and Professor Shen's answers and analyses. Below is a detailed recount of the questions and answers involving Professor Shen:

• Host: 依然請到了大家最想念的老師，我們的沈老師，老師好。 (We still have everyone's most missed teacher, our Professor Shen, hello Professor.)

  • 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 主好，大家好。 (Host good, everyone good.)

• Host: 是，今天哦，又是這個跟老師要探討一些國際方便的議題，我們大晚上了，比上次提前了半個小時哦，所以老師我們今天來觀察一下，我們從民調開始。您還記不記得在川普隊等關稅，就4月2號之後，那個週末我們聊了一下，大概有50萬人上街，最新的4月19號，美國時間當地時4月19號，全美共有520萬人上街進行反川普的市衛遊行，包括反對關稅，反對驅趕移民，反對施壓哈佛大學等川普的最新民調呢，也是創下了二戰以來美國總統當選人中第二的記錄，我們可以把這個記錄帶大家看一看哦，最低錄是誰呢？打敗川普的，只有川普最低記錄是川普的第一任期哦，我看第二任期它有45%的這樣的一個支持度，當然我還想給大家帶來一份民調，這個民調呢在此刻出現也值得大家來關注。川普雖然說用國安來威脅恐嚇民眾，最新的皮油調查反而給了他一個巴掌，有77%的受訪者對中國持負面看法，雖然大家乍一聽覺得還是挺高的，但是叫2024年是有下降四個分點，是五年來第一次出現回落，此外認為中國是美國敵人的比例呢是降到了三分一低於去年的42%, 那麼在認為哪個國家對美國構成最大的威脅這一問題之上呢，42%的人是選擇了中國，如果對比2023年同類調查，其實是有減少八個百分點的黨派差異，大家注意去看，其實共和黨支持者對中國態度的緩和幅度是更大的，來老師哦，從4月5號到現在4月19號，上街從50萬到520萬，這其中發生了什麼事啊？ (Yes, today, again, we are here to discuss some international convenient topics with the professor. It's late at night, half an hour earlier than last time. So Professor, let's observe today, starting with the polls. Do you remember after April 2nd, when Trump and his team were imposing tariffs, we talked about it that weekend, and about 500,000 people took to the streets. The latest data from April 19th, local time in the US on April 19th, shows a total of 5.2 million people across the US marching in anti-Trump protests, including protests against tariffs, against the deportation of immigrants, and against pressuring Harvard University. Trump's latest approval rating has also set the second-lowest record among elected US presidents since World War II. We can show everyone this record. Who has the lowest record? The only one who beat Trump's lowest record is Trump's first term. I see his second term has an approval rating of 45%. Of course, I also want to share another poll, which is worth everyone's attention at this moment. Although Trump threatened and intimidated the public using national security, the latest Pew survey gave him a slap in the face. 77% of respondents have a negative view of China. Although at first glance it seems quite high, it has decreased by four percentage points since 2024, the first decline in five years. In addition, the proportion of people who believe China is an enemy of the United States has dropped to one-third, lower than last year's 42%. Regarding the question of which country poses the greatest threat to the United States, 42% chose China. Compared with similar surveys in 2023, this is actually a decrease of eight percentage points in partisan differences. Everyone should note that the softening of Republican supporters' attitudes towards China is even greater. So, Professor, from April 5th to now, April 19th, the number of people taking to the streets increased from 500,000 to 5.2 million. What happened in between?)

  • 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 口袋啊，真金白銀啊。就納瓦羅的核心邏輯或者說是馬卡們的核心邏輯是什麼？核心邏輯是我很強。我應該過得比現在更好，同時不用為這種改善付出實質性的代價。你們這幫民主黨的人整天在上面說那些有的沒的，我認為你們太娘炮了，我認為你們太軟弱了，我認為你們沒有像我想的那樣去做，所以我們選一個我們的T普上來，T普說的我們愛聽，做的我們愛看，邏輯跟我們一樣一定會取得預期的效果，結果啪打下來了我讓你做了關稅加了嗎？加了有效果嗎？沒效果誰手上了，所有人現場上經濟學課，關稅是由美國人自己承擔的，不是外國人負的。是的。所以你那個時候說中國不好行啊，說中國不好的那個時候沒影響你的飯碗啊。所以我無所謂啊，我就說中國人不好，我又可以爽一把，我又可以掙這個錢，生活沒影響，結果現在咔嚓啊，那邊等一下我的錢是從那邊來的我的東西是要賣到那邊去的，那個地方是叫中國，行，那我開始冷靜了。理性嘛。經濟理性嘛，我認為非常反應美國的實用主義作風，他們就是這樣的嘛。就是跟美國人打交到，你跟他講道理。他接受的道理就是物理，就是客觀的存在。你跟美國人講道理，你不是跟他說書上這麼寫的是對是錯，或者前人的經驗是對是錯，你甚至都不用跟他講話。看他行動。他的行動是符合你的利益的。是你希望的，那你給他甜頭。如果他的行動是不希望的，說的話是不對的，怎麼辦？想辦法讓他損失錢。然後，然後你不用教他的，他非常他自己會學習的，特別學習能力特別強，特別非常的柔軟，身段非常的由刃有餘，而且特別擅長什麼？特別擅長就是大聲吼叫著轉向前進。你看上去他準備大吼大叫的過來，然後你會發現他非常滑的誇誇誇就是嗯不轉進了嗎？ (It's about their pockets, real money. What is Navarro's core logic, or the logic of the "Make America Great Again" supporters? The core logic is, "I am strong. I should be doing better than I am now, and I shouldn't have to pay a real price for this improvement." These Democrats are always talking about irrelevant things. I think they are too effeminate, too weak, and didn't do what I wanted them to do. So, we elected our Trump. We love what Trump says and what he does. His logic is the same as ours, and he will definitely achieve the expected results. But then, reality hits. I let you impose tariffs, did you? Did it work? No effect. Who is affected? Everyone is learning an economics lesson on the spot: tariffs are borne by Americans themselves, not by foreigners. Yes. So, it was okay for you to say China was bad then because it didn't affect your livelihood. So, I didn't care. I said the Chinese are bad, and I felt good about it, and I could still make money, and life wasn't affected. But now, suddenly, wait a minute, my money comes from there, and I sell my goods there. That place is called China. Okay, I start to calm down. It's about rationality. Economic rationality. I think it very much reflects the pragmatism of the American style. That's how they are. When dealing with Americans, you reason with them. The only reason they accept is physics, objective reality. When you reason with Americans, you're not telling them what's written in books is right or wrong, or what past experience is right or wrong. You don't even need to talk to them. Watch their actions. If their actions are in line with your interests, with what you want, then you give them benefits. If their actions are not what you want, if what they say is wrong, what do you do? Find a way to make them lose money. Then, you don't need to teach them. They will learn very quickly themselves. Their learning ability is particularly strong, and they are very flexible, very adaptable, and particularly good at what? Particularly good at shouting loudly and then changing direction. It looks like they are about to come at you roaring, and then you will find them very smoothly, quickly, quietly... haven't they changed direction?)

• Host: 靈火。 (Nimble fire.)

  • 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 然後對。然後呢中國人跟美國人打交到特別特別要注意一點事情。就我們自己我們自己對我們自己的要求是一回事啊。就我們不要把我們自己的要求套到美國人身上去。就說簡單來說有些東西我們是有的，他們是沒有的比如果臉，就這個東西是就是有些美國人是沒有臉的，我必須這樣說，有些美國的政治經，美國的政治精英政客混得遊刃有餘的基本是沒有臉的。但是區別就是有一批人他明明沒有臉，他裝的特別有臉的樣子，有一批是直接把臉扔遞上然後隨便在臉上畫的，他不介意不介意的。那這是一種情況。第二種情況呢，就是記住每個人對實力特別敏感。美國人對實力特別敏感。然後呢跟美國人講話呢一定要直白。一定要直白，你比如說那你對於香佬不喜歡這個詞就就砸回去，你告訴他我們很生氣。然後告訴他我生氣了之後我可以在哪些地方來收拾你，比如說你的眼線筆就沒有了。你也許叫長價。嗯。那在這樣的情況下面，然後我們要勇於自黑，然後要用畫就要糊在對方臉上，我我還是那句話之前高志凱先生的那個發言很出名對吧，我們在5000年的時間裡面，不知道啥叫美國，我們未來5000年也許，I don't care, 我沒有表達我要跟你生活在預期。但到國外去講這意味的什麼呢？我們要調整我們的心態，就是我們是在跟一個250, 明年是美國這個250週年的這樣一個建國的這樣一個國家，就是他就是一個只有250年歷史的這樣一個國家，他的歷史他只有250他的政治人物對於歷史的感知比較好一點，能從歐洲那去借一點。那中間那批走英化路線的能夠上訴到希臘羅馬的現在不受待，什麼時候出來了代點，另外再說對吧，現在這批人基本上就250週年，250年的這種框架下成長起來的這批人，這批人我們不能對他有很高的預就說他可以受過非常良好的知識訓練，比如說從耶路的法學院畢業，對吧？耶路是非常好的學校，但是他對於歷史，他對於政治，他就是沒有那個sense。就他沒有那種感覺，他缺乏對於人類社會的敬畏。他沉迷於短期的力量，他沉迷於自己塑造和想像出來的虛幻的力量。所以我們一定要調整我們的心態用一種正確的方式去跟美國那邊的人打交到，而且優先進行什麼？優先關注進行非常清晰直白明了的信息傳遞，就是我們要什麼，你別讓他去猜。他猜不好的。而且他會裝瘋賣傻。對。所以你就告訴他，你要我跟你打電話，你要我跟你談，可以。你先把你的這個145%的稅撤了。或者說你把其中的50%的撤。了說了以後，我們可以跟你打第一個電話，或者是我們可以進行哪一個成績的會談，然後你再把剩下的34%撤了。你把125都撤乾淨，回到那個分攤的20%, 我們可以開啟講什麼樣的會談。然後你再把這120, 把這20的分攤你也給撤了，回到你加稅之前，我們第一可以談到什麼程度，第二中美之間的這個交易可以達到什麼程度，你希望如何去進行貿易逆差，你不是關心貿易逆差嗎？ (Then yes. Then, Chinese people need to pay special attention to one thing when dealing with Americans. Our own demands on ourselves are one thing. We shouldn't impose our demands on Americans. To put it simply, we have some things they don't, like face. Some Americans, especially some political and business elites, basically have no face. But the difference is that some people clearly have no face but pretend to have it, while others directly throw their face on the ground and let you draw on it as you please, they don't care. That's one situation. The second situation is to remember that everyone is particularly sensitive to strength. Americans are particularly sensitive to strength. And when talking to Americans, you must be straightforward. Absolutely straightforward. For example, if you don't like the term "Xianglao," just hit back and tell them we are very angry. Then tell them what you can do to retaliate after getting angry, for example, their eyeliner might be gone. Maybe they'll raise prices. Yes. In such a situation, we must dare to make self-deprecating jokes and then smear the truth on their faces. I still repeat what Mr. Gao Zhikai said before, which was very famous. In 5000 years, we didn't know what America was. Maybe in the next 5000 years, I don't care, I don't need to plan to live with you. But what does it mean to say this abroad? We need to adjust our mindset. We are dealing with a country that is 250 years old next year, the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States. It is a country with only 250 years of history. Its politicians have a slightly better understanding of history and can borrow a little from Europe. The middle group that followed the British path could appeal to Greece and Rome, but now they are not respected. When did respect emerge? Let's talk about that later. The current group basically grew up within the framework of the 250th anniversary, the 250 years. We shouldn't have high expectations for this group, like they have received very good academic training, for example, graduating from Yale Law School. Yes, Yale is a very good school, but they lack a sense of history and politics. They don't have that feeling; they lack awe for human society. They are obsessed with short-term power and with the illusory power they have created and imagined. So, we must adjust our mindset and use the correct approach to deal with people in the United States, and prioritize what? Prioritize very clear, straightforward information transmission. Tell them what we want, don't let them guess. They are bad at guessing. And they will pretend to be crazy. Right. So, you just tell them, if you want me to call you, if you want me to talk to you, okay. First, you must remove your 145% tariff. Or remove 50% of it. After saying that, we can have the first phone call with you, or we can hold a certain level of talks, and then you remove the remaining 34%. Remove all 125% and go back to the 20% sharing, and we can start talking about what kind of talks. Then you remove the 120%, and you also remove the 20% sharing, going back to before you raised the tariffs. First, we can talk to what extent, and second, to what extent can the trade between China and the US reach? How do you want to address the trade deficit? Aren't you concerned about the trade deficit?)

• Host: 行。 (Okay.)

  • 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 所說第三個呢，我們要給美國人上課，上什麼就是上最直白的經濟學的課程，S 不是說了嗎？這個所謂修課或者是國際貿易的這種修課療法，這是他第二天上課的課程，但是川普在新學期只能堅持一天，他堅持不到第二天，他第一天就被 F 掉了，對吧？第一天的這個過關考試就直接被 F 掉。那我們沒有辦法，因為川普他事實上沒有辦法被第二天去 F 掉，我們還要跟他打至少打到2026年，或者是還要再打交到打完他第一任期這四年，我們就要告訴他，就是我們要寫出來就中美之間的貿易逆差是怎麼來的。我們現在講的還比較客氣。嗯。就中美之間的貿易逆差說白了就是中美之間原來貿易上不應該有那麼大的美國的逆差，確但但是呢，原因是我們想買的東西美國不賣給我們。所以你要削減逆差，你應該是減少美國的高技術產品的出口管制。你確保中國能夠從美國自由的獲得我們想買的高技術的產品，讓你賺就我們賣給你勞動力和資本的，或者是相對於你最尖端的部分差那麼一點點的高科技的產品，你賣給我們最高最高最最尖端的我們遵循知識產權保護的這樣一些東西，我們可以談嘛。嗯。做生意的意思就是談。但是我們現在等同意就說我們要向他介紹國際貿易的知識，同時我們要教美國人怎麼樣是做生意的規矩這個規矩不再是你予取予求，他現在的這個規矩就是什麼？他現在表現出來的米蘭這套規矩和那個海湖專研方案，就是有人做過一個很好的比方。就是把全世界變成一個巨大的中世紀封建國家，要求其他國家向美國納共。他把美國的國債變成一種攤派，定期進行收割，這是錯誤的這是一情前願的，這是愚蠢的。當然寫出這個愚蠢的一鄉情願的錯誤的那個米蘭還在那個印級小組裡面，對吧？那個印級小組裡面有非常出名的眼線筆，對吧？有非常出名的那個背叛了這個專業精神的那個貝森特，有那個盧特尼克，然後有那個應該是有那個那個那個經濟組的族長，還有那個米蘭納瓦羅已經特別出局了。納馬羅已經靠邊站了，對不對？嗯。在這些人當中，沒有一個是兒八景的願意跟中國把這個事情談完的。所以後面還有的條了，還有的條，但是可以講清楚的一點就是大家記住，美國對於實力是極其敏感的，美國絕對不會聽不懂以實力為基礎的這樣一種語言和溝通方式，我們只要堅持從實力出發和美國人進行這樣一種對話，美國人早晚會進，接受和理解這一點。對。對於中國來講大家耐心一點，你可以理解普在跟中國打。我還是那句話，普是在跟哈。 (So the third thing is, we need to teach Americans a lesson, what kind of lesson? The most straightforward economics lesson. Didn't S say it? This so-called remedial class, or this kind of remedial therapy for international trade, that's the course for his second day. But Trump could only persist for one day in the new semester. He couldn't even make it to the second day. He failed on the first day, right? He directly failed the first-day qualification exam. We have no choice because Trump actually can't be failed on the second day. We have to deal with him at least until 2026, or even after his first four-year term is over. We need to tell him, we need to write it out, how the trade deficit between China and the US came about. We are still being relatively polite now. Yes. To put it bluntly, the trade deficit between China and the US shouldn't have originally been so large on the US side. But the reason is that the US doesn't sell us what we want to buy. So, if you want to reduce the deficit, you should reduce the export controls on US high-tech products. Ensure that China can freely obtain the high-tech products we want to buy from the US, so you can earn from what we sell you: labor-intensive and capital-intensive products, or high-tech products that are just a little less advanced than your cutting-edge ones. You sell us the very highest, most advanced ones, and we will abide by intellectual property protection. We can talk about that. Yes. The meaning of doing business is negotiation. But now, we are essentially saying we need to introduce him to the knowledge of international trade, and at the same time, we need to teach Americans the rules of doing business. These rules are no longer about you taking whatever you want. What are his current rules? The Milan plan and the Mar-a-Lago strategy he is now displaying are like turning the whole world into a giant medieval feudal state, demanding tribute from other countries to the US. He turns US national debt into a levy, harvesting it regularly. This is wrong, wishful thinking, and stupid. Of course, Milan, who wrote this stupid, wishful, and wrong plan, is still in the task force, right? In that task force, there is the very famous "eyeliner" [referring to Mnuchin], right? There is the very famous Bessen, who betrayed professional ethics, there is Lighthizer, and then there is the leader of the economic team, and Milan Navarro is already pretty much out. Navarro is already sidelined, isn't he? Yes. Among these people, not one genuinely wants to finish negotiating this matter with China. So, there are still more points, but one thing that can be made clear is that everyone should remember that the US is extremely sensitive to strength. The US absolutely will understand the language and communication based on strength. As long as we persist in engaging with the US from a position of strength, the US will sooner or later accept and understand this point. Yes. For China, everyone needs to be patient. You can understand that Trump is fighting with China. I still say, Trump is fighting with Hayek.)

• Host: 耶克打。自由主義。 (Fighting Hayek. Liberalism.)

  • 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 特朗普是在跟哈耶克打，所有反擊特朗普的人，你都是哈耶克的歷史的無形的的手。你只要做到這一條，我告訴你，你只要忍下去，忍耐下去，並且做哈耶克讓你做的所有的事，川普到最後一定是失敗的。 (Trump is fighting with Hayek. Everyone who fights back against Trump is the invisible hand of Hayek's history. As long as you do this, I tell you, as long as you endure, be patient, and do everything Hayek wants you to do, Trump will definitely fail in the end.)

• Host: 那好，老師剛剛提到了就是說中國現在用實力現場給美國上了一堂課，從民眾當中就可以反應，因為您剛剛提到了美聯儲這一塊，所以我我想請您再順帶幫我們談一下，因為川普對於鮑爾也是直接施壓了，最近也引起了大家的一個反應，那您覺得目前怎麼樣來看，有人說川普要人為的製造一種衰退，或者說是大量美債後一定是主權國家這樣的的一個推您對目前的這樣的的一種市場上的說法，您的觀察是什麼？ (Okay, Professor just mentioned that China is now giving the US a lesson on the spot with its strength, which is reflected in the public reaction. Since you just mentioned the Federal Reserve, I would like to ask you to also talk about it. Trump has also directly pressured Powell recently, which has caused a reaction from everyone. What do you think of the current situation? Some people say Trump wants to artificially create a recession, or that after selling a large amount of US debt, sovereign countries will... What are your observations on the current market speculation?)

  • 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 我高考了一個分數。這個分數我考的不理想。我故意的。我對自己的人生有一個規劃，我就要給自己開啟一個hard的模式，所以我故意考了一個低。這就是他說的原化的意思。對吧？那甚至於你說他普說我就是上帝。我就是神，我看到了美國的未來，我從未來時空穿越而來，所以我精準的引爆了美國國債這個地雷，引爆個鬼啊，我信你個鬼。我信你就有鬼了。這個美債是怎麼下跌的？一開始所有人都慌了一逼，講什麼？是主權國家在對美國國家進行狙擊，一開始說中國，後來說日本，還記得嗎？是。結果呢，市場自發看低美債啊，還需要你去引爆啊，你在那瞎拆陳重你在那加關稅削減美國的貿易逆差的時候，你想過啊，支撐美元美債的核心就是美國的逆差，你想過嗎？學習不及格，明明就忘了老師講過這個題，做錯還說我故我故意做錯一道題，試試看老師能不能劈出來是吧。這個就叫做胡說八道。然後呢，有些人又開始用別人的用事後找補的方式去替補美國現在面臨的是美債的額度問題嗎？是嫌這個利息太高，所以我要用這種方式把利息降低嗎？他這場危機動的是美債的利息嗎？他利息降了嗎？他非但沒有降，飆升的利息顯示的是什麼？顯示的是資本市場的基本面對美國政府的履債能力第一次失去了信心。這叫引爆美債危機啊，這叫摧毀美債體系。這種摧毀美債體系，我說是不好聽的，你按照思路期，你腦洞大開，你還不如說特朗普這是俄羅斯派來的蘇聯的間諜，就是摧毀美國的金融霸權的，這個邏輯更加還主動引爆製造危機可控，想什麼呢？順著那個說出這番話的人就是把米蘭的那份海湖莊園協議當爭了。嗯是。這份這份協議裡面所有的計劃他講了一堆美國先做什麼，別的國家怎麼做，美國先做什麼，別的國家怎麼做，美國先做什麼，其他國家就如何，他從來不問一個問題，憑什麼？憑什麼，你憑什麼讓其他國家就只有關稅，尤且只有關稅。關稅。萬事不覺一舉關稅就解決，為什麼關稅牛逼，因為美國的市場最大，其他國家離開美國市場就去死。這是何其幼稚的一這東西幼稚粗淺到那些學大學金融精英的，你交易的時候，你遇到過哪個你的對家，他說把你兜裡的錢交出來給我，否則我加你三%的關。 (I took a college entrance exam and got a score. The score wasn't ideal. I did it on purpose. I have a plan for my life, and I wanted to start on hard mode, so I deliberately scored low. That's what he means by original. Right? He even says Trump said, "I am God. I am a deity. I saw the future of America. I traveled from the future, so I precisely detonated the landmine of US Treasury bonds." Detonate what? I believe you as much as I believe in ghosts. If I believed you, that would be a ghost story. How did US Treasury bonds fall? At first, everyone panicked, saying what? Sovereign countries are sniping at the US national debt. At first, they said China, then Japan, remember? Yes. As a result, the market spontaneously became bearish on US Treasury bonds. Did you even need to detonate anything? When you were recklessly messing around and raising tariffs to reduce the US trade deficit, did you ever think that the core support for the US dollar and Treasury bonds is the US deficit? Did you think about that? Failing a test and then saying, "I deliberately got one question wrong to see if the teacher would scold me," after clearly forgetting that the teacher taught that question. That's called nonsense. Then, some people started using others to retroactively justify things, saying that the US is now facing the issue of the US debt ceiling? Are they嫌 the interest rate is too high, so they want to use this method to lower it? Is this crisis moving the interest rate on US Treasury bonds? Has the interest rate dropped? Not only has it not dropped, but the soaring interest rate shows what? It shows that the fundamentals of the capital market have lost confidence in the US government's ability to repay its debts for the first time. That's called detonating a US debt crisis, that's called destroying the US Treasury bond system. This kind of destruction of the US Treasury bond system, to put it bluntly, based on your train of thought and wild imagination, you might as well say Trump is a Soviet spy sent by Russia to destroy US financial hegemony. That logic makes more sense than actively detonating and creating a controllable crisis. What are they thinking? The person who said this followed Milan's Mar-a-Lago agreement. Yes. All the plans in this agreement talk about what the US will do first, what other countries will do, what the US will do first, what other countries will do, what the US will do first, and what other countries will do. He never asks one question: by what right? By what right do you allow other countries to only have tariffs, and only tariffs? Tariffs. If something doesn't work, a tariff will solve it. Why are tariffs so great? Because the US market is the largest, and if other countries leave the US market, they will die. This is so naive. This thing is so childish and superficial that even university finance students, when you are trading, have you ever encountered an opponent who said, "Hand over the money in your pocket to me, otherwise I will add a 3% tariff on you?"

• Host: 稅。 (Tariff.)

  • 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 你就從了一個人在路上要搶另一個人兜裡的錢，他好歹得拿把真槍吧。啊美國手，我手上我拿一張紙上面寫著手槍兩個字，然後拿這張紙指著你說把你都交給我，你就交了呀。他米蘭的搶劫劃不就是這個嗎？我隨便拿一個什麼東西上面寫著手槍兩個字，因為大家都怕手槍，我對著對方手槍舉下，我不用真的開槍，對方就會把兜裡的錢給我，這個世界是這樣運行的嗎？你拿真槍去頂著別人腦袋，別人都不一定把這個錢引爆還計劃像什麼呢？ (You would comply? If someone on the street wants to rob another person of the money in their pocket, they at least have to have a real gun, right? Ah, American style, I hold a piece of paper in my hand with the word "handgun" written on it, and then I point this piece of paper at you and say, "Give me all your money," and you just hand it over? Isn't that Milan's robbery plan? I just randomly take something with the word "handgun" written on it, because everyone is afraid of handguns. I point it at the other person, I don't need to actually fire a shot, and the other person will give me the money in their pocket. Is that how the world works? Even if you hold a real gun to someone's head, they might not give you the money. And you're still planning on what?)

• Host: 對。 (Right.)

  • 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 大家不要不要太當真了，不要太當真了，所以我們來看看，你看接下來最後一點到現在為止，川普有幾個國家真的在關稅問題上拿下了呀？第一談的日本絕對是沒有拿下的，日本開越拿下沒沒有啊？並沒有。越南都沒有拿下，憑什麼你把連越南都嚇不掉的槍能嚇死中國呀。被嚇死的還不就是自己想對美國下跪啊。對。不就這事嗎？有什麼好多說的，所有那些在那講這講那那些有的沒的，就是你自對吧全世界都知道就拖到最後，為什麼？你美債真的炸了，死的最重的一定是美國。其他國家就是被健商，就是被租聯，但是只要中國願意出來牽著大家做，還是那句話，全球減美國霸權。對。你就用關稅反而你的關稅把你的美債隔離牆一樣防火隔離帶你自己燒去吧，你把自己給圈上了。我就在邊上冷冷的看著你。你能怎麼樣？就你那跟胡賽武裝打的有來有往的那些武器，你還用他來威脅全世界。接著吧。所以我跟你說米蘭他代表了一種最糟糕的美式的治學方式，就是快樂教育條件下交出來的非常自信的具有迷之自信，對於歷史都是按照自己看似智力重新拆解過呢，在那認真真一本正經胡說八道自我感覺良好的人。就搞出來的這麼一份東西嗯。然後呢，歷史老人就決定給美國一個一個歷史的幽默就讓你這個是藉兩次大戰的機會在那邊上摸摸魚混上去的長期忽視自我的這種精英培養的美國獲得一個與你自己這種相匹配的衰落之法，讓你不得不體念的衰。我覺得等著看好戲吧，因為之前老師講過說全世界減美國開始，現在發現這個浪潮真的就是洶洶湧起來了，所以我們非常關注一下後續的一些變化，老師剛剛有提到說美國身段非常的軟，我就想來跟老師提一句話，不知道您還記不記得川普當時說，他說人家不是形容他經常做一個事情是撞南牆嗎？他說我撞了南牆呢，我轉彎了，這個是說明我川普自己自己非常的靈活，那麼就透過他的靈活最近的一些表現，我們來看一看，或者請老師解讀一下川普總統最近的精神狀態怎麼樣啊，這兩個事情分別是什麼呢？ (Everyone, don't take it too seriously, don't take it too seriously. So let's see, look at the last point, so far, how many countries has Trump really brought down on the tariff issue? The first one he negotiated with, Japan, he definitely didn't bring down. Did Japan open Vietnam? No, it didn't. He didn't even bring down Vietnam. By what right can you use a gun that can't even scare Vietnam to scare China? Aren't the ones who are scared just those who want to kneel down to the US? Yes. Isn't that it? What's there to say? Everyone knows that in the end, why? If your US debt really explodes, the one who suffers the most will definitely be the US. Other countries will just be injured, but as long as China is willing to lead everyone, I still say, globally reduce US hegemony. Yes. You use tariffs, but instead, your tariffs are like a firewall around your US debt, a firebreak, let it burn itself out. You have trapped yourself. I'll just watch you coldly from the side. What can you do? With those weapons you use to fight the Houthis with some back and forth, you still use them to threaten the whole world. Keep going. So I tell you, Milan represents the worst kind of American approach to scholarship, which is the product of happy education: very confident, with a mysterious confidence, who reinterprets history according to their seemingly clever intellect, and then seriously spouts nonsense with self-satisfaction. That's what produced this kind of thing Yes. Then, old Father History decided to give the US a historical humor, letting this country, which took the opportunity of the two World Wars to muddle through and has long neglected self-improvement in elite training, find a way to decline that matches its own level, so that you have to experience decline. I think we should wait and see the good show, because Professor said before that the whole world is starting to reduce its reliance on the US, and now we see this trend is really surging, so we are very concerned about some follow-up changes. Professor just mentioned that the US is very flexible, and I want to mention something to Professor. I don't know if you remember Trump said at the time that people often described him as hitting a wall, but he said, "When I hit a wall, I turn," and this shows that I, Trump, am very flexible. So, through his recent flexible performances, let's take a look, or please Professor interpret President Trump's recent mental state. What are these two things respectively?)

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 第一個呢，就是川普說自從我美國對中方提出多對等關稅之後呢，中方多次的聯繫我尋求談判，所以美方對中國的關稅不會再提高，甚至可能會下調，川普明確的表示說他預計可能在三到四個星期內達成中美協議，但是中方並沒有證實是不是可能達成協議，只有中國商務部門曾經表示說對美國的出口部門一直保持著工作層級的溝通。另另外一個消息來。 (The first is that Trump said that since the US proposed reciprocal tariffs against China, the Chinese side has contacted him multiple times seeking negotiations. Therefore, the US will not further increase tariffs on China, and may even lower them. Trump explicitly stated that he expects a US-China agreement to be reached within three to four weeks. However, the Chinese side has not confirmed whether an agreement is possible. Only the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has stated that it has always maintained working-level communication with the US export sector. Another piece of news is.)

• Host: 帶給大家是曾經放話24個小時解決俄污的川普羅斯跟烏克蘭下通疊了，說如果近幾天我看不到戰爭結束的可能性，我就不管了，我就把這個責任呢交給歐盟，讓歐盟去管，雖然說聽這句話感覺是川普非常傲嘯，很與待威脅，但是也感覺出來他已經是前驢了，川普政府也即將滿百日了，新任期的外交利也在快速消失，所以相信老師幫我們分析一下哦，此刻您覺得有沒有一種施壓額或者放棄俄污轉向尋求中美達成大的協議來給國內一個交代的這個感覺，您如何來進行觀察？ (To bring to everyone is that Trump, who once vowed to solve the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 24 hours, has given a stern warning to Ukraine, saying that if he doesn't see the possibility of the war ending in the next few days, he will no longer care and will hand over the responsibility to the European Union. Although this sounds like Trump is very arrogant and threatening, it also feels like he is at his wit's end. The Trump administration will soon reach its 100th day, and the diplomatic leverage of the new term is rapidly disappearing. So, please Professor help us analyze, do you think there is a feeling of pressure or abandoning the Russia-Ukraine issue to seek a major agreement with China to give a domestic account? How do you observe this?)

  • 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 正面對T普這樣的學生老師有一種非常簡單的評分方式從1月20號開始把特朗普在對外問題上講過的說過的話要達成的目標列張表。然後編上做兩列，第一列說了什麼，第二列做了什麼。然後後面給一個達程度評估。看完這東西之後呢，你大概就知道是什麼。那我們來理一啊，大概大家能夠有印象的那些事啊。加拿大變成美國的第51個週墨西，墨西哥他達成了，他在地圖上畫了一個美國，把墨西哥彎改成了美國灣，這是一個得分點對吧。馬六甲運河拿下來了嗎？沒有。格林蘭怎麼樣了？格林蘭，格林蘭，格林蘭怎麼樣？格林蘭拿下了沒有？俄污衝突不要說俄污衝突，我們後面會討論的，俄污衝突曾經要簽一個礦產協議，礦產協議簽被忘路千了。24小時停火達成了吧，最近的停火還是普京說我們來復活節火，對不對？對。對中國關稅砸過來，中國退了吧。像發風一樣的漲到145, 然後把之前的100算上去玩個遊戲，說真到245%所有的招數都弄了以後，中國搭理他什麼工作組組成級，你不是說中國要給你打電話嗎？你不是那些國家iss嗎？行啊，現在多少人真的來kiss your ass了，你說呀。你拿出了什麼東西？圖現在做，如果說他是一個學生，他在面前有一張卷子，那麼他的做法就是這張卷子上有一十道大題他從第一題開始，每題下面把題目念了一遍，念完題目之後寫了一個答或者寫了一個解，畫了一個冒號，然後保持空白，換下一題。他現在從第一題到最後一題，所有的解已經全部寫完了，寫完了以後他發現他除了解和冒號之外，寫不出任何題目來，然後監靠老師就站在他邊上，這個時候他開始轉筆，隨機挑一個新的題目，下面寫第二個解字，寫第二個冒號就這樣。你拿這個中國這個問題上中方所謂的主動聯絡，這是一句正確的廢話，中美雙方的工作組組成級一直在保持通訊，但是在這種保持通訊當中，中方給出的信息非常簡單，你豁免你豁免信息產品的那些加上去的125%的那個稅把它降到20%的稅率，雖然我們不滿意，但我們稱之為朝著正確方向前的一小步，也就是說你如果現在說三到四週內達成中美之間的協議，那麼三到四週內，我們首先會看到的是美國豁免絕大部分中國對美國出口商品的125的對點關稅。嗯。要么豁免要要么取消。現在你既不豁免也不取消。然後你跟我說三到四周，不好意思，這個三到四周就會變成你普說的24小時解決。任務。 (To deal with a student like Trump, a teacher has a very simple way of grading. Starting from January 20th, make a list of the goals Trump said he would achieve on foreign policy issues. Then create two columns, one saying what he said, and the other saying what he did. Then, give a rating of the degree of achievement. After looking at this, you will probably know what's going on. So let's sort it out, some things that everyone might remember. Did Canada become the 51st state of the US? Mexico, he achieved something there. He drew the US on the map and changed the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, that's a scoring point, right? Did he take the Strait of Malacca? No. What about Greenland? Greenland, Greenland, what about Greenland? Did he take Greenland? The Russia-Ukraine conflict, let's not talk about that now, we'll discuss it later. There was supposed to be a mineral agreement signed regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the mineral agreement was forgotten. Was the 24-hour ceasefire achieved? The latest ceasefire was still Putin saying, "Let's have an Easter fire," right? Right. Tariffs were slammed on China, did China back down? It surged like crazy to 145%, and then they played a game by adding the previous 100%, saying they would reach 245%. After trying all sorts of tricks, China ignored his working group level. Didn't you say China would call you? Aren't you the iss of those countries? Okay, how many people are really kissing your ass now, tell me? What have you achieved? Now, if he were a student facing an exam paper, his approach would be to read each of the ten major questions, and after reading each question, write "answer" or "solution," followed by a colon, and then leave it blank before moving on to the next question. Now, he has written all the "answers" to all the questions, but then he realizes that besides "answer" and the colon, he can't write anything else. And the proctor is standing next to him. At this time, he starts twirling his pen, randomly picks a new question, writes "second solution" below it, and then a second colon, just like that. Regarding China's so-called initiative to contact him on this issue, it's a correct piece of nonsense. The working group level of both China and the US has been maintaining communication, but in this communication, the information given by China is very simple: you exempt, you exempt the 125% tax added to information products, and lower it to a 20% tax rate. Although we are not satisfied, we call it a small step in the right direction. That is to say, if you now say that a US-China agreement will be reached within three to four weeks, then within these three to four weeks, what we will first see is the US exempting the vast majority of the 125% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US. Yes. Either exempt or cancel. Now, you neither exempt nor cancel. And then you tell me three to four weeks? Excuse me, this three to four weeks will become your Trump's 24-hour solution. Mission.)

• Host: 衝突。 (Conflict.)

  • 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 然後呢，也許過一陣子別人就會來解釋說特朗普總統從來沒有說過是從哪天開始的三到四周。給自己招不啊。這個自己找的。第二個呢就是所謂這個殺手美國殺手不管將責任轉交給歐洲門果，你的殺手不管指的是什麼意思？是美國全面停止對烏克蘭出售武器嗎？這全面停止報協助嗎？你這些東西如果全面停止放給歐洲蒙國之後，會發生的事情是什麼？會發生的事情必然是烏克蘭在戰場上的全面潰敗死的比現在更加難看而這個死的比現在更加難看，這個鍋你特朗普逃得掉嗎？你特朗普在當在到了那個時候經濟經濟搞不好，中國施壓，中國施壓不成，你唯一的外交成功的例子是把烏克你你真的準備以一個俄羅斯代理人的這個投銜去做完你後面的總統任期嗎？你承擔的起這個政治後果嗎？你確定美國的馬喜喜歡他們的領導人是一個有通俄羅斯嫌疑的美國領導人，把烏克蘭切成一個漂亮的的這個拼盤，然後給端上去。你驚得起這。瞎說什麼呢？已經語無倫次了。好吧。現在你如果從心理的角度上來說，特朗普現在的心理特徵核心特點叫做恐懼。什麼叫做恐懼？第一個對自己闖獲了，但是又不願意面對和承認，但是改變不了現實的恐懼。第二，驚慌和焦慮。為什麼驚慌和焦慮？他知道局勢不好但是這種不好的局勢，他一直既希望某種奇蹟的出現，因為他是天之交子。他是與眾不同的。就像某一部著名的咆哮具開頭的時候，只要誰誰帶領什麼什麼什麼發起攻擊，一切都會好起來結果手下告訴他不好意思，不存在了，他們已經被殲滅了，然後那位老馬上次就崩了，看起來顫抖的雙手摘下眼鏡，叫了三個人過來開始奔口。他現在的情況就已經差不多了。他現在那個情況，他組建那個處理中國關稅小組的那個緊急處理小組就已經有點事了，你這個納瓦羅誰給你出的搜主意都是你的問題，你給我出去出去了以後來你我最信任的萬師，我忠誠的萬師，特別能幹的貝森特講話講的我特別喜歡聽的盧特尼克，還有你在後面出主意的這個米蘭，你們這些聰明人幫我去把中國的問題搞定，我幹嘛？我先打告爾夫球去了。逃避逃避啊。嗯不敢面對這種這種人格就是這樣的。為什麼他知道這是什麼？這就這個小組最好的應對結果就是用某種辦法實質性的擱置這部分關稅不加以執行那問題是你要做這件事情，你就要承認自己的失敗，你就要承認自己的無能，甚至於最近的消息你看到了那個800美元那個包裹的事情，美國海關又堆起來了呀。對。完全不出我們當初的意料之前他不是停過一次對於那個800美元的那個什麼小額解免，後來又臨時被迫恢復，為什麼？不就是是你海關沒有這些能力去檢查這些包裹，這說明什麼？你上面制定那個關稅政策的人對於美國海關每天檢查包裹的能力你沒有sense。你沒有紅脖子最喜歡講的生活時，你就腦子一拍就開始下傲慢無知低能。就這樣。就你這麼個東西，然後你跟我講說，哎呀，還什麼施壓俄污轉向中美談判。中國跟俄羅。 (Then, maybe after a while, someone will come out and explain that President Trump never said when the three to four weeks would start. Isn't he digging a hole for himself? He's bringing this on himself. The second thing is the so-called killer, the American killer, regardless of transferring responsibility to European allies. What does "your killer regardless" mean? Does it mean the US will completely stop selling weapons to Ukraine? Will it completely stop providing assistance? If you completely stop giving these things to European allies, what will happen? What will inevitably happen is the complete defeat of Ukraine on the battlefield, dying even uglier than now. And can Trump escape the blame for this even uglier death? If Trump is in office at that time, with a poor economy, China exerting pressure, and failing to pressure China, the only example of his diplomatic success is... are you really prepared to finish your remaining term with the title of a Russian agent, after making Ukraine into a beautiful platter and serving it up? Can you bear this? What nonsense are you talking about? It's already incoherent. Okay. Now, if you look at it from a psychological perspective, Trump's core psychological characteristic is fear. What is fear? First, the fear of having caused trouble but being unwilling to face and admit it, yet being unable to change reality. Second, panic and anxiety. Why panic and anxiety? He knows the situation is bad, but in this bad situation, he keeps hoping for some kind of miracle to appear because he believes he is the chosen one. He is different from others. It's like at the beginning of a famous roaring drama, as long as someone leads some kind of attack, everything will get better. But then his subordinates tell him, "Excuse me, it's gone, they have been annihilated." Then the old general immediately collapsed, took off his glasses with trembling hands, and called three people over to start yelling. His current situation is already similar. In his current situation, forming that emergency task force to deal with China's tariffs already indicates trouble. Navarro, whoever gave you that bad idea is your problem. You get out of here, and then you bring in the people I trust the most: my loyal Vance, the particularly capable Bessen whose speeches I especially like to listen to, Lighthizer, and Milan, who gives you ideas from behind. You smart people go and sort out the China problem for me. What am I going to do? I'm going to play golf first. Avoidance, avoidance. Yes, not daring to face it, this kind of personality is like that. Why does he know what this is? The best outcome for this task force is to find some way to substantially put aside these tariffs and not implement them. But the problem is, if you want to do this, you have to admit your failure, you have to admit your incompetence. Even recently, you saw the $800 package issue. US Customs is backed up again. Yes. It was completely within our expectations. Didn't he once stop the small-amount exemption for the $800 limit, and then was temporarily forced to reinstate it? Why? Isn't it because your customs doesn't have the ability to inspect these packages? What does this show? The person who formulated the tariff policy at the top has no sense of the daily package inspection capabilities of US Customs. You don't have what the "rednecks" like to call "life experience." You just slapped your forehead and started making arrogant, ignorant, and idiotic decisions. That's it. With something like you, you then tell me about pressuring Russia and Ukraine to shift to US-China negotiations? China and Russia.)

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 斯有興趣才牛。那這個時候呢，真的到了那個要去考慮一下特朗普講的那句那些職業官員，那些其他國家，比如說中國，比如說俄羅斯受過真正精英教育從業務條件一路一路上來的，對於業務非常熟悉的那那些你的同行們，會怎麼看待去跟他談判的那些美國的政務官，你們是個什麼東西啊？我跟你談我我怎麼放心你扔一個技術語出來的時候，你懂不懂你在說什麼？這個問題我們後面那段講到那個所謂第三合五庫的時候，就就就是一個最經典的例子。嗯。好。老師因為您剛剛老師，因為您剛剛講到的這個奢華的關稅應級小組，我還是把這一段先跟大家再補充的說一點，原因呢是因為就說中國拒絕讓步就是釀成了一個整個供應鏈的一個危機，包括我們看到最近的一些勢力，我跟大家說一下，呃整個波音波音已經都塗好了，好像是廈門航空吧，結果呢中國不要，整機就給美國飛回去了，甚至如果大家去查中國已經有兩個月沒有從美國進口了，轉而是和阿聯球簽署了一個最大規模的LNG能源協議，所以說現在川普徹底慌了，他就想組建一個對華印級小組來協調這些關稅，其中的人呢，剛剛老師提到了，包括了副總統萬，財政部長特，商務部長LIAK, 白宮國家經濟委員會主任凱文哈希特，還有白經經濟顧問委員會主席米蘭，以及貿易代表格利爾，但是老師哦，我也去看了一下最近的一個分析，其實有美國媒體或熟知川普的人說，川普常常陷入一種叫做分析癱瘓，他的決策會受那個來跟他說話的人的影響，所謂我們看到的突然川普把90天的對等給所有的對等官有90天的時間，就是因為他們就是有兩個人趁納瓦羅不在川普旁邊的時候呢，跟川普一直在旁邊講說你應該拿掉，你應該拿掉，這兩個人呢分別是商務部長lonic 還有財政部長被僧特，所以您剛剛提到就是說要技術性的對華關稅要不然就不執行，現在我有看到把出貨地地址，比如說從中國改成龍城了，就是這種技術性的操作，未來會不會從這個美國看得出來非常多荒唐走版的案例啊？ (are only interested if it benefits them. At this point, it really comes down to considering what Trump said about those career officials, those other countries, such as China and Russia, who have received genuine elite education and have risen through the ranks based on their professional qualifications and are very familiar with their work. What would your counterparts think of those American political appointees who negotiate with him? What are you people? When I talk to you, how can I be sure that when you throw out a technical term, you understand what you are saying? We'll get to the most classic example of this later when we talk about the so-called third set of five storages. Yes. Okay. Professor, because you just mentioned this luxurious tariff emergency task force, I still want to add a bit more to what I just said. The reason is that China's refusal to concede has caused a crisis in the entire supply chain. We've seen some recent developments. Let me tell you, the entire Boeing... Boeing planes have already been painted, I think for Xiamen Airlines, but China doesn't want them. The entire plane was flown back to the US. Even if you check, China hasn't imported from the US for two months, and has instead signed the largest LNG energy agreement with the UAE. So, now Trump is completely panicked. He wants to form a China emergency task force to coordinate these tariffs. The members, as Professor just mentioned, include Vice President Pence, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Ross, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Milan, and Trade Representative Lighthizer. But Professor, I also looked at a recent analysis. Some US media or people familiar with Trump say that Trump often falls into a kind of "analysis paralysis." His decisions are influenced by whoever speaks to him last. What we saw as Trump suddenly giving all reciprocal trade officials 90 days to achieve parity was because two people took advantage of Navarro's absence from Trump's side and kept telling Trump he should remove it. These two people were Commerce Secretary Ross and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. So, as you just mentioned, either the technical aspects of the tariffs against China should prevent their implementation, or they shouldn't be implemented at all. I've now seen that shipping addresses, for example, have been changed from China to Longcheng. With this kind of technical manipulation, will we see many more absurd and distorted cases emerging from the US in the future?)

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 首先說中美關稅博弈。之前有人在那講，美國是需求，中國是共給。湯普就這個邏輯，我手上有鈔票，我全世界拿不能買。西方經濟學的核心，核心概念是需求跟共擊，但是西方經濟學在這個PK的時候，如果一方有需求優勢，一方有共給優勢，PK的是什麼？PK的是稀缺性。或者叫做是可替代性的強弱。如果有一方你的共是非非常容易被替代的，比對方的需求更容易被替代，而對方的需求對你是至關重要的，很難被替代，那麼這個時候需求勝共。到過去需求如果可以被替代，共如果無法被替代，那麼共給勝需。現在美國對中國的共給是什麼？能源產品和農產品，能源產品和農產品除非你家的能源，除非你家農產品跟別家的能源和農產品，你那個鶴靈模型裡面講的這個資源夫優勢和技術優勢，這個ঁ夫大道出現代計差，就是美國的大豆不能用全世界別的任何一國家帶鬥大豆來取代，那麼算你狠，我還得盯著你。但是只要。 (First, let's talk about the US-China tariff game. Someone said before that the US is demand, and China is supply. Trump's logic is, "I have money, I can buy anything in the world." The core concept of Western economics is supply and demand. But when they clash, if one side has a demand advantage and the other has a supply advantage, what is the deciding factor? It's scarcity. Or the strength of substitutability. If one side's supply is very easily replaceable, easier to replace than the other side's demand, and the other side's demand is crucial to you and difficult to replace, then demand wins over supply. In the past, if demand could be replaced and supply could not, then supply would win over demand. What is the US supply to China now? Energy products and agricultural products. Unless your energy, unless your agricultural products are unique compared to others' energy and agricultural products, according to the Heckscher-Ohlin model's resource endowment and technological advantage, if there is a significant modern technological gap, meaning that US soybeans cannot be replaced by soybeans from any other country in the world, then you have an advantage, and I have to keep buying from you. But as long as.)

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 試大豆，只要用的都是類似的種子，種船的類似的大豆，全世界都一樣的話，我憑什麼盯著你美國買？我就挑全世界最便宜的買，中國也是市場，我們也有需求同樣的你美國如果有本事，你確保你的全市場是全世界最大，沒有辦法有份額替代，同時你能死從中國出發，所有的轉口貿易的途徑很你做不到，不好意思，中國的這種不可替代的共擊分分鐘就繞開你的關稅，到那繼續去跑，你的關稅對我沒印象，你根本攔阻不了我，而且而且我拒絕接受你的關稅壓，美國人現在在做什麼呢？他們可能啟動了個東西類似於叫做什麼對美國首次銷售計劃這樣的東西。然後呢找了一些事務所，比如說碧馬威這種，我點個小名名好了。那個到中國來忽悠中國的出口商就說我是代表美國的品牌方來的，比如說我是代表嗯好比說叫亞要馬遜吧好比說叫LV吧，叫L威吧，或者叫什麼，那個牌子我批不出來，反正剩某個牌子吧。到中國來把中國的這個進口商全部忽悠進來。然後說第一把你們的內部的商業秘密通把你們的出場，出場的真實價格交出來。把你們的用工成本交出來。把你們的關聯企業交出來。然後呢，我給你做一些培訓啊，做一些培訓之後，我代表第三方嘛，然後事實上美國就是啊，進入這個培訓計劃的我關稅就交一點，不進入這個關培訓計劃的我關稅就交多一點吧。然後但是因為我少徵了你的關稅所以呢，後面真的這部分關稅呢，你廠家給我降價來消化。嗯。然後呢，當然作為一個完美的閉環還是什麼？除此以外其他地方那些轉口的什麼東西，我通通定義為走私。然後我讓美國海關攔死。聽上去很好聽吧？嗯。遇到的最大問題是什麼？你美國海關渾身上下有多少斤丁，你能打你多少斤鐵能打多少丁。你你攔得住吧。你如果攔不住，你就是個笑話，你就把希望寄託在什麼中國政府不介入和反制上面，對吧？對。你仔細你的皮。你那些你那些過來搞事情的。啊那些那些什麼會計事務所那些什麼綠所，你仔細你的皮，你這叫維虎作唱。你等著被收拾不可靠實體清單，反制裁法裡面關於那些配合不意外國國家對中國進行制裁，損害中國家裡這種描述，就是對你這種第三方機構良生定作的。你就仔細你的皮吧。這就是美國人希望呀。就他那個所謂的印級小組能想出來的無非就是這些論，還然後中國講的很清楚，波音我就不要，為什麼他轉而去買空課，轉去買自己的商飛。嗯。你不要以為你波音的零件有多牛逼，你波音的零件是你全美供應鏈的嗎？不是。不是。對。我退了你的整機，我買你的零件，你的零件廠商還能跟我一樣有鼓氣不成壓力給到零件，美國的零件廠商，其他國家零件廠商。然後LNG也一樣啊。就是現在美國他對中國的想法也很簡單，就是他要知道要搞一個同盟嘛，對嗎？搞一個同盟就是說讓其他國家把他們對中國的關稅拉倒跟中國一樣高，不讓中國的商品走這個東西，對吧？孤立中國。那很簡單呀。也就是說美國要做的是世。 (Test soybeans, as long as similar seeds are used, similar soybeans are grown and harvested, if everything is the same around the world, why should I only buy from you, the US? I'll just buy the cheapest in the world. China is also a market, we also have demand. Similarly, if you, the US, have the ability to ensure that your entire market is the largest in the world, with no way to substitute market share, and at the same time you can block all transshipment routes originating from China, if you can't do that, excuse me, China's irreplaceable supply can bypass your tariffs in minutes and continue to flow there. Your tariffs have no impact on me, you can't stop me at all. Moreover, I refuse to accept your tariff pressure. What are Americans doing now? They may have launched something similar to what's called the "First Sale for Export" program. Then they found some firms, like KPMG, let me just name one. They come to China to deceive Chinese exporters, saying they represent American brands, for example, they represent... well, let's say Amazon, or LV, or some other brand I can't recall right now. They come to China and deceive all Chinese importers. Then they say, first, you need to hand over your internal trade secrets, your ex-factory price, the real price. Hand over your labor costs. Hand over your related companies. Then, I'll give you some training. After some training, I represent a third party. In fact, the US is... those who enter this training program will pay a little tariff, and those who don't enter will pay more. Then, because I have reduced your tariff, the manufacturers will lower their prices to me to absorb this part of the tariff. Yes. Then, of course, as a perfect closed loop or what? Besides this, all other transshipments will be defined as smuggling. Then I'll have US Customs block them all. Sounds good, right? Yes. What's the biggest problem encountered? How many pounds of iron can your US Customs forge into nails? Can you really block everything? If you can't block it, you'll be a joke. You're pinning your hopes on the Chinese government not intervening and retaliating, right? Yes. Be careful. Those of you who come here to stir things up. Those accounting firms and law firms, be careful. You are helping a tiger to harm someone. You are waiting to be dealt with. The unreliable entity list and the countermeasures law, regarding those who cooperate with foreign countries to sanction China and harm China's interests, are tailor-made for third-party institutions like you. Be careful. This is what the Americans hope for. The so-called task force can only come up with these arguments. And then China clearly stated, I don't want Boeing. Why did it switch to buying Airbus and its own commercial aircraft? Yes. Don't think your Boeing parts are so great. Are Boeing parts supplied entirely by your US supply chain? No. No. Yes. I returned your entire aircraft, I'll buy your parts. Can your parts manufacturers still be as confident? Pressure will be put on parts, US parts manufacturers, and parts manufacturers in other countries. And the same goes for LNG. The US's idea towards China now is very simple: they want to form an alliance, right? Forming an alliance means having other countries raise their tariffs on China to the same level as the US, preventing Chinese goods from going through them, right? Isolating China. It's very simple. That is to say, what the US wants to do is to reduce the world's reliance on China, right?)

• Host: 界減中國，對不對？ (Reduce the world's reliance on China, right?)

  • 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 對。世界減中國可以啊，在這個世界減中國的體系裡面，中國是誰了？你還得找一個人來替代，你美國替代得了你美國自己的共擊要年馬月才能達到中國的水平，這是第一，第二你讓別的國家不跟中國玩，別的國家產能出口給誰玩，你要把自己變成一個進口進出口國家，不允許別的國家替代中國向你出口，別的國家憑什麼跟你玩。那網絡這個坑繞來繞去是繞不出去的呀。嗯。就就是美元霸權跟貿易逆貿易貿易逆差清零絕對沒有辦法把自己成一個進出口國家，這是不可能的樣，除非呢你跟我說你有本事一夜之間你美國建立一套天頂心科技，然後你獨步全球，全球就你一家生產的起來。不要說別的了。之前之前亮哥也說過這是這個白宮那邊已經變成個笑話了，你美國搞製造業，有多少美國人願意進流水縣給我去達羅斯？兩成啊然後你那些白那些就我就跟你說那些馬卡都覺得是什麼製造業回來我的狀況就會好起來，但你要我像傳說中的造帝國大廈的內代美國無產階級工人內那樣成為歷經風霜考驗的這一代有戰鬥力的美國人，你想多了。你想多了，就你現在這些美國人誰去誰去來挑一個出然後你留回去的都是什麼？機器人自動流水線，麻煩你看一看機器人自動流水線，這個機器人是哪產的？你給我仔細看看，你到最後美國不要變成什麼，變成一個大號的20世紀八九年的中國，給我去搞來加工去。用機器人自動化工廠去給我搞來加工去。那就笑死人還有老師剛剛我提到的最後一點就是川普所謂的非常容易受最後一個跟他談過的人這樣的的一個影響，因為現在白宮的人都很擔心，特別怕川普出門的時候呢，保安跟他多說兩句，甚保安跟他多說兩句呢，他第二天就立刻透過社交媒體，就不知道傳達一個什麼樣的一個信息這個是為川普在晚不是最後一個去跟特朗普講話的人去跟特朗普就改變了特朗普的主義，無非是什麼，無非特朗普是一個主意非常多變。同時呢他又缺乏對這些問題的全面的系統的認知，以及他又特別在意維護自己這種尚位者權威這三個東西合到一起所導致的一個病態的情我不相信普是跟人聊天的時候是那麼容易被人擺布的人，如果是那麼容易被人擺的，儘早就讓他把這個烏克蘭全部賣光了。你這個他最後一次談話的人對吧，跟普京談完之後，偶爾表現出了一些對俄羅斯的這樣一種喜好，但不代表說這個，但是川普呢有一點是很容被人利用的，或者說他的一個結構性缺陷是什麼？就很多問題他確實不懂。他不是假的不懂，他是真的不懂。這是第一。第二，他有想在這些問題上通過自己與眾不同的間解來鞏固自己的權威。在這樣的情況下，如果有一個人或者有一批人他摸了特朗普的性格。知道了哪一種表達方式特朗普特別容易吃。那這些人就很容易說服特朗普做出這樣一種特殊的改變。嗯。這種人放在中國古代，那是是什麼？叫寧城還是叫弄城？ (Yes. Reducing the world's reliance on China is possible. But in this system of reducing the world's reliance on China, who becomes China? You still need to find someone to replace it. Can the US replace its own supply? It would take forever for the US to reach China's level of production. That's the first point. Second, if you prevent other countries from trading with China, who will they export their production capacity to? You would have to turn yourself into an import-export country, not allowing other countries to replace China in exporting to you. Why would other countries play along with you? This network trap, you can't get out of it no matter how you try. Yes. Simply put, with US dollar hegemony and the trade deficit, you can't just eliminate the trade deficit and turn yourself into an import-export country overnight. It's impossible unless you tell me that overnight, the US can establish a top-notch technology, become the global leader, the only one capable of producing it. Let's not even talk about other things. Liang Ge also said before that the White House has become a joke. For you to develop manufacturing in the US, how many Americans are willing to go to the assembly line in Detroit? Maybe 20%. And those MAGA supporters think that if manufacturing returns, their situation will improve. But for you to become like the American working class who built the Empire State Building, that generation tested by hardship and full of fighting spirit, you are overthinking it. You are overthinking it. Among the current Americans, who would go? And what are you left with when they return? Robotic automated assembly lines. Please take a look at the robotic automated assembly lines. Where are these robots made? Take a close look. In the end, the US might just become a large-scale version of China in the 1980s and 90s, doing processing work. Using robotic automated factories to do processing work. That would be a laughingstock. And the last point I just mentioned, Professor, is that Trump is supposedly very easily influenced by the last person who spoke to him. Because now people in the White House are very worried, especially afraid that when Trump goes out, if security says a few extra words to him, even just a few extra words, the next day he will immediately convey some unknown message through social media. This is because Trump, late at night, is not the kind of person who would change his mind just because of the last person he talked to. What happens is that Trump has very volatile ideas. At the same time, he lacks a comprehensive and systematic understanding of these issues, and he is particularly concerned about maintaining his authority as the leader. The combination of these three things leads to a pathological situation. I don't believe Trump is so easily manipulated in conversations. If he were that easily manipulated, he would have been persuaded to sell off all of Ukraine a long time ago. The person he last spoke to, right, after talking to Putin, occasionally showed some favor towards Russia, but that doesn't mean that... However, there is one aspect where Trump is easily exploited, or rather, what is one of his structural flaws? He genuinely doesn't understand many issues. He's not pretending; he really doesn't understand. That's the first point. Second, he wants to consolidate his authority on these issues through his unique interpretations. In this situation, if there is a person or a group of people who understand Trump's personality, who know what kind of expression Trump is particularly receptive to, then these people can easily persuade Trump to make this kind of special change. Yes. This kind of person in ancient China was called what? Ning Cheng or Nong Cheng?)

• Host: 寧城寧城啊。 (Ning Cheng, Ning Cheng.)

  • 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 放在歐洲就是宮廷小丑。就是宮廷小丑，放在俄羅斯那邊，在歷史上就是像拉斯普京這樣的人物。那這種人物那這種人物會出現什麼樣，出現在什麼樣的這個尚位者的身邊，然後會帶來什麼結果，歷史的結局說的是非常清楚。那這個事情呢，你也沒辦法，為什麼？因為川普就是這樣的。你沒有辦法去改變他，你沒有辦法去改變他。你現在要讓他就是構建一種全新的學習能力不清楚然後呢，現在這個緊急對華關稅處理小組啊，我覺得可能是一個緊急悲鍋這個替罪羊小組應級。頭疼一頭腳疼一腳，什麼意思呢？你下面有什麼人有什麼聲音過來，不要來找我套普我偉大英明的套郎已經授權了一群出類拔之輩，做了一個印級小組，你們找他去。你們找他然後呢，這裡面的每一個都是老間巨華的馬匹金，不管是萬斯貝森特，如特尼特西特還是米蘭，又或者是格利爾，格利亞爾可能是最先出局的。這個可憐的格里爾被踢到國會美國關稅政策辯護的時候，他把關稅停了。這就是完全在背後捅了一刀不顧格利爾的死活，所以他肯定是第一米蘭呢差不多了，為什麼那個海湖莊園協議荒腔走版的程度特朗普是不會介議的，特朗普是學術委員會的主席，他不會藉助介議這個東西的這個學術能力，但是這個東西在國市市場上給他惹的這個貨，特朗普應該在米蘭後面已經寫了個已經做了個標記了。因為國代這個事情普是知道的。知道什麼就是美國國代市場不能崩。嗯如果不是外國人算計我是真的這個資本市場要崩的話，那個掌握美國國代市場六成的美國國內的那那些投資者中間，那裡面的有的特朗普真的得罪不起的人。這些人會很明確的警告特朗普。那特朗普是會把這部分的警告記在米蘭身上的，因為海湖莊園和那個國代那個東西是被你坑的嘛。對。所以川普的決策是什麼？川普的決策很可能是這就是你看米蘭。米蘭說我很聰明，我這樣啪啪啪啪這樣做，但是米蘭有一個計劃跟他普做是不對的。他是主張一個溫和的建的關稅方案，一點一點去嚇唬別人。然後特朗普就做了一件事，就是他的這個性格的人特別做了一件事情，當他拿了一個方案之後，他一定要改一下的。他一定要改一下證明什麼？證明改過了之後的方案才是更完美的方案，這就是我尚位者的這種結果呢這一刀就改在南牆上 。所以說米蘭這個人他不肯定記合他，你怎麼就是那個著名的是一個漫畫家這個寫一個東西之後，他每次在邊上畫一個劇醜無比的狗，然後教那個然後那個編輯就跟他大家打很長時間，讓他把那個巨仇的那個狗改掉，將一來他既滿足的那那個編輯，對他行權威的這種心理上的滿足感，又沒有對整個稿子造成實質性的破壞 。所以你看你米蘭這個蠢貨，你交了一個極其完美的東西出來，你都不知道在邊上要放一個洞，要T普去補一下，然後就說哎領導你說的太對了，我就沒有對不對？還是結果領導說那我就趕一下吧，結果就在別的地方一刀趕下去 。就把那個計劃就，然後這個領導確實領導也確實非常 。 (In Europe, they are court jesters. They are court jesters. In Russia, historically, they are figures like Rasputin. What kind of situation will such figures appear in, by the side of what kind of ruler, and what will be the result? History has made the ending very clear. There's nothing you can do about it. Why? Because that's just how Trump is. You can't change him, you can't change him. Trying to get him to build a completely new learning ability is unclear. And now, this emergency task force for dealing with China's tariffs, I think it's likely an emergency scapegoat task force. Treating the head when it hurts and the foot when it hurts, what does that mean? If there are people below with concerns or opinions, don't come to me, Trump. My great and wise Trump has already authorized a group of outstanding individuals to form a task force. Go find them. You go find them. And everyone in there is an old, cunning fox, whether it's Vance, Mnuchin, Lighthizer, Hassett, or Milan, or Grier. Grier is likely the first to be eliminated. That poor Grier, when he was pushed to defend US tariff policy in Congress, he stopped the tariffs. That was a complete backstab, disregarding Grier's well-being, so he's definitely the first to go. Milan is almost done for too. Why? Trump won't mind the extent of the absurdity of the Mar-a-Lago agreement. Trump is the chairman of the academic committee, he won't rely on the academic ability to intervene in this matter. But this thing has caused him so much trouble in the national debt market that Trump should have already marked Milan behind his back. Because Trump knows about the national debt issue. What he knows is that the US national debt market cannot collapse. Yes. If it's not foreigners plotting against me, and the capital market is really going to collapse, among those domestic investors who hold 60% of the US national debt market, there are people Trump really can't afford to offend. These people will very clearly warn Trump. And Trump will hold Milan responsible for these warnings, because the Mar-a-Lago agreement and the national debt issue are his fault. Yes. So, what is Trump's decision-making process? Trump's decision is very likely to be this: look at Milan. Milan says, "I'm very smart, I do this and that." But Milan has a plan that doesn't work with Trump. He advocates for a moderate tariff plan, scaring others little by little. And then Trump does one thing, a characteristic of his personality: when he gets a plan, he must change it. He must change it to prove what? To prove that the revised plan is a more perfect plan. This is the result of his leadership style, and this change is like hitting a wall . So, Milan certainly won't agree with him. How come you are like that famous cartoonist who, after writing something, always draws an extremely ugly dog on the side and tells the editor... and the editor spends a long time arguing with him to get him to change that extremely ugly dog. This way, he satisfies the editor's desire to exert authority while not causing substantial damage to the entire manuscript . So look at you, Milan, you idiot. You submitted an extremely perfect thing, but you didn't even know to leave a hole on the side for Trump to fill, and then say, "Oh, leader, you're so right, I didn't get it right?" Or else the leader says, "Then I'll just make a quick adjustment," and then he makes a cut somewhere else . He just takes the plan and... and this leader is indeed very .)

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 有眼力，就改在了那個可以把整個計劃搞黃的唯一的那那個點上一頭就改 。改得乾淨淨嘛 。直接在第一波就徹底搞砸了 。哈西特這個人現在還藏在後面具體的背後是什麼還看不清楚，但是最終這裡面會變成三國殺三角公鬥系，就是盧特尼克大戰特和萬斯兩馬匹對一個被劫的技術官僚 。盧特尼克我這個人我到現在還看不太懂，因為我發現他的角色還真的就是純蠢的對特朗普吹彩虹 。就是沒有任何，他還真沒有看出什麼上升管道什麼我要取代萬事當個副總統之類的，我還幹不出萬師很正常，萬師就是少幫主，我要做一人之下，我要做一人之下，就是川普不在就是如正清靈 。然後普也許給了他一個把自己這個野心暴露出來的機會，被森特挺微妙的，就大家一直江湖傳說這個老兄現在的說法似乎是這個老兄掌握了一套畫術，可以在守住專業性底線的同時用他那個畫術把湯普給伺候開心了，這樣湯普可以給他以足夠的授權這樣去做 。在這個印級小組裡面，如果是基於上述這樣的情況的話，萬師被勝特和盧特尼克這三個人一定會打 。一定會打 。最早的毛最核心的矛盾會爆發在這個萬和貝森特之間 。他們兩個人要搶的 。他們兩個人要搶，要搶這個印級主導權的，要要講整要搶整個印級策略主導權的 。那就看了貝森特畢竟還是主要代表的華爾街的利益，那萬的話呢就是M的少幫主了 。就是基層紅波子選民 。所以也算是萬師要把自己塑造成普分身如正清明，我不是少普，我就是普，我是年輕版的普 。我是川普的投影，我繼承著普的預 。普這次我不知道他為什麼做這個安排他這個安排其實從但我提一點啊，只有人只有這六個人物出來，任何關於這個印級小組如何走的這個細節完全沒有 。感覺好像也就是川普腦門一熱，我感這幾個人拉個群，我給你們的任務就是要對中國對，就是因為中國的反應完全出乎美國的醫醫療之外，美國也完全沒有做過任何應對中國反應的預案，然後再被中國一頓報答以後說就是那個九頭蛇對於某個人說的那句著名的話，你去把唐生師徒給我幹掉 。就是就是你們就是就是你們六個人去給我把他幹掉，然後六個人你可以想像那種面相去的臉，絕對是什麼情況，你是老大，現在我我不管了，我要把經歷集中在別的事情上，你們去負責幫我把這個事情給搞完 。然後搞成了功勞都是我的，搞不成了你們六個人自己把鍋分好，一人背一個鍋，然後結束 。對 。所以大家不要先想著說中美談判了，因為我覺得川普就自己內部這一團亂，我覺得他都自己要離一理，究竟派誰出來跟中國去談這個事情，去溝通管道，我覺得還是現在現在說還早了 。老師對還有一個地方補充一點，請記住這次涉及到的是關稅 。美國加州的州長已經在那起訴說這東西不歸你總統去管 。嗯 所以到最後真的你開玩笑講說這這最戲劇化的畫面是什麼，就是這幾個人談了一套方案出來，特朗普興高采烈的通過，大家覺得中美之間這個關稅可以如何如何的時候，美 。 (has vision, so he changed it at the only point that could ruin the whole plan, and changed it completely . He made a clean sweep . He completely messed it up in the first wave . Hassett is still hiding in the background, and it's unclear what's really behind him, but eventually, this will become a three-kingdoms power struggle, with Lighthizer fighting against the two horses of Mnuchin and Vance against a kidnapped technocrat . I still don't quite understand Lighthizer's role, because I find that his role is really just to foolishly flatter Trump . There's nothing to it. He hasn't seen any upward mobility, like wanting to replace Pence as vice president or something. It's normal that he can't do what Vance does. Vance is the young leader, and I want to be second in command, I want to be second in command, meaning when Trump is not around, it's like Zheng Qingming . And Trump may have given him a chance to expose his ambition. Mnuchin is quite subtle. There's a rumor that this guy has mastered an art of flattery that can keep Trump happy while sticking to professional bottom lines, so Trump can give him enough authorization to do things . In this task force, based on the above situation, Vance will definitely be attacked by Mnuchin and Lighthizer . Definitely attacked . The earliest and most core contradiction will erupt between Vance and Mnuchin . These two are competing . These two are competing for the leadership of this task force, to control the entire task force strategy . Let's see, Mnuchin ultimately represents the interests of Wall Street, while Vance is the young leader of MAGA . He represents the grassroots "redneck" voters . So, Vance is also trying to portray himself as Trump's alter ego, like Zheng Qingming, saying, "I'm not just a younger Trump, I am Trump, I am the younger version of Trump . I am Trump's projection, I inherit Trump's..." . Trump's current arrangement, I don't know why he made it. This arrangement, in fact... but let me point out, only these six figures have emerged. There are absolutely no details about how this task force will operate . It feels like Trump just had a sudden idea and pulled these people into a group, saying, "Your task is to deal with China." Because China's reaction was completely beyond the US's expectations, and the US had absolutely no contingency plan for China's reaction. And after China retaliated, it's like the Hydra saying to someone, "Go kill Tang Sanzang and his disciples" . It's like, "You six go and kill him for me." And you can imagine the faces of those six people. What's the situation? You're the boss, now I don't care, I want to focus my energy on other things. You guys are responsible for finishing this task for me . If it succeeds, all the credit is mine. If it fails, you six can divide the blame yourselves, each take a share, and that's the end of it . Yes . So, everyone shouldn't be thinking about US-China negotiations for now, because I think Trump is in such internal chaos that he needs to sort things out himself. Who will be sent to negotiate with China, to establish communication channels? I think it's still too early to say . Professor, one more point to add, please remember that this involves tariffs . The governor of California is already suing, saying that this is not under the president's jurisdiction . Yes . So, in the end, jokingly speaking, what would be the most dramatic scene? These people come up with a plan, Trump approves it with great excitement, everyone thinks the US-China tariffs will be resolved, but then .)

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 國法院通過一道禁令所有的談判無效，因為這個權利是國會的 。嗯 。然後給你一切歸零 。這會特別有樂子，這後面的這個，而且現在美國國會裡面在對中國的問題上會有一批更瘋的瘋子 。他們還沒動手呢，他們現在還沒抓到機會跳船，等到什麼時候國會把這個關稅的東西重新拿回到，就是法院重新判到國會之後，那批瘋子還要出 一波手 。就是對華眾議院的對華工作小組，應該是那批人 。對，就那那那個選就是那個中國問題選擇委員會嘛，就特別特別小組嘛 ，嗯 ，是 ，好 ，所以這個還要考慮，還要考慮到美國三權分利，因為現在大家都在說川普是無權利用總統所謂的國家緊急什麼經濟法，國家緊急法案，然後對於全球各國加徵這個對等的關稅的，所以法律戰爭還要值得我們去觀察 。最後老師您剛剛提到的額物這一塊我還想要講一下，因為非常有有很多點想要請老師來做一下解讀，就是是剛剛講到的川普是威脅嗎？說我不不在，如果你們不達成人協議，我就不再管你額誤了，但是這個事情發生之前還有一個重磅事情就是美國跟烏克蘭之間呢有簽署了一項礦產協議其中的核心要點給大家列出來了，我稍微說一下，第一個是規定設立烏克蘭重建投資基金，第二個呢被忘路特別指出美屋雙方承認烏克蘭自願放棄世界第三大核武器 呃 ，還有說哦，說這個被忘路有規定美國尊重烏克蘭加入歐盟後的義務或與國際金融機構及其他官方債權人達成協議時所承擔的相關義務，就意味著美之之間關於礦產協議的制定工作不會與烏克蘭的歐洲議體化道路產生衝突，來老師幫我們分析一下，我看好多人都在說澤列司機被賣了，你看他剛剛跟就就是美國簽署了這個被忘路之後呢，轉頭川普就說我不不管你跟俄污了，但是究竟是不是這樣呢？老師的解讀是是什麼？ (The US court passes an injunction, making all negotiations invalid because this power belongs to Congress . Yes . And then everything goes back to zero . This will be particularly fun, this part later on. Moreover, there is now a group of even crazier people in the US Congress on the China issue . They haven't taken action yet, they haven't found a chance to jump ship. But when Congress takes back control of these tariffs, after the court rules in favor of Congress again, that group of lunatics will make another move . It's the House China Working Group, that should be those people . Yes, that selection committee on the China issue, that special task force , yes , right , okay . So this still needs to be considered, and the separation of powers in the US needs to be considered, because everyone is saying that Trump has no right to use the so-called national emergency economic law, the National Emergencies Act, to impose these reciprocal tariffs on various countries around the world. So, the legal battle is still worth our observation . Finally, Professor, I also wanted to talk about the Russia-Ukraine issue you just mentioned, because there are many points I would like you to interpret. Is Trump really threatening, saying he won't be involved anymore if they don't reach an agreement? But before this happened, there was another major event: the US and Ukraine signed a mineral agreement. Here are the key points. The first is the establishment of a Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. The second is that the memorandum of understanding specifically points out that both the US and Ukraine acknowledge Ukraine's voluntary renunciation of the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal . And it also says that the memorandum of understanding stipulates that the US respects Ukraine's obligations after joining the EU or the related obligations it undertakes when reaching agreements with international financial institutions and other official creditors. This means that the formulation of the mineral agreement between the US and Ukraine will not conflict with Ukraine's path towards European integration. Professor, please help us analyze this. I see many people saying that Zelenskyy has been sold out. Look, he just signed this memorandum of understanding with the US, and then Trump immediately said he wouldn't care about Russia-Ukraine anymore. But is that really the case? What is your interpretation, Professor? )

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 我看到這個被忘路，我第一時間反應我是去看了一下日曆 。日曆 。嗯 。我看了一下日曆，我去看了一下今年是幾年 。哦 。你是說那個放棄烏克蘭資源放棄第三大核武器烏克蘭所謂的第三大核武器庫指的是1991年蘇聯解體然後把一批核武器移留在了烏克蘭和白俄羅斯這兩個新獨立的主權國家俄羅斯和烏克蘭因此成為世界上第三烏克蘭是第三俄羅斯是第四核武器大國他們的核武器的遺留的蘇聯的核武器的遺留的數量超過了英國，法國和中國核武器之合 。這就是所謂第三大核武器庫的來源 。然後第二世紀90年代克林頓政府美國國防部副部長威廉施預防性防禦行動威廉寫了一本書叫做prepventive defense 預防防性防禦裡面的第一個案例叫無妨共傾城就發生在烏克蘭共清城是一個蘇聯在烏克蘭的導彈發射基地上面有S18 十枚SS18 液體周計彈導導彈 。為了把這個基地裡面的核武器銷毀掉，威廉配裡去了共清城五次 。導彈從裡面掉出來彈頭拆下來，氮體燒毀，放到煉鋼樓裡去回收掉，導彈裡面的這個裝藥拿出來摻上補二斯0頓化運到美國或者俄羅斯給予相應的經濟補償，導彈發射警填上炸藥炸，炸翻以後 。 (When I saw this memorandum of understanding, my first reaction was to check the calendar . The calendar . Yes . I looked at the calendar, and I checked what year it is . Oh . Are you referring to abandoning Ukrainian resources and the third-largest nuclear arsenal? Ukraine's so-called third-largest nuclear arsenal refers to the Soviet Union's dissolution in 1991, after which a batch of nuclear weapons was left in Ukraine and Belarus, two newly independent sovereign states. Russia and Ukraine thus became the third (Ukraine) and fourth (Russia) largest nuclear powers in the world. The number of Soviet nuclear weapons left in their possession exceeded the combined nuclear arsenals of Britain, France, and China . This is the origin of the so-called third-largest nuclear arsenal . Then, in the 1990s, William Perry, Deputy Secretary of Defense in the Clinton administration, wrote a book called "Preventive Defense," and the first case study, "No Harm Done If the City Falls," happened in Ukraine. Pervomaysk was a Soviet missile launch site in Ukraine with ten SS-18 liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles . To destroy the nuclear weapons in this base, William Perry went to Pervomaysk five times . The missiles were taken out, the warheads were dismantled, the rocket fuel was burned, and they were sent to steel mills for recycling. The propellant inside the missiles was taken out, mixed with 200 tons of explosives, and transported to the US or Russia with corresponding economic compensation. The missile silos were filled with explosives and blown up, then .)

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 埋上泥土，泥土裡面種上向日葵，在這個向日葵地的邊上做好宿舍，把守導彈發射警的士兵和軍官全部安置好，家人給予工作，整個一套東西做 。2001年烏克蘭成為一個無可武器國家 。烏克蘭簽署布達佩斯被忘路 。包括俄羅斯在內，只中國是後續加入另外簽了一份東西，但意思是樣的 。保障烏克蘭的領土和主權完整，不受其他有核國家用核武器的攻擊和核武器的這個 。這是2001年之前這套動作全部做完了 。你2025年出來說所以中文首先翻譯有問題，他不是說烏克蘭今天跳傳說我是一個世界第三大核武器庫，現在為了和你進行談判，所以我自願放棄，而是說美國和烏克蘭重申了要承認烏克蘭過去做出了哪些在2025年的時候拿出一份24年之前烏克蘭做出的貢獻，意味的什麼？雙方無化可談 。嗯 。沒有任何成就 。沒有任何推廣的東西，沒有任何實質性的內容，這是第一題 。第二，這是一份被對路是什麼意思呢？而且他的內容是美國跟烏克蘭下個星期或者4月26號什麼什麼簽署礦協議的被忘路 。對 。就是告訴大家，雖然我們還沒有談完，雖然礦產協議的文本還沒有確定，雖然最後簽署的日期還沒有敲定，雖然戰後重建基金的份額包含的內容都沒有確定，但是我們一定會簽的 。什麼時候簽不知道 。我們給個memo告訴大家，你看我們是在這叫什麼被忘路？就是談不成被忘路嗎？ 嗯 。談了沒有再談，談成了沒有？沒有 。後面怎麼辦？繼續談 。大家放心，我們一定會繼續談的，我們簽了被忘路要繼續談，被忘錄的內容就是我 。那為什麼還要給自己定一個時間呢？因為之前是說4月22號會簽，然後最後那個協議出來的確定版是4月26號，貝森說我們爭取在4月26號的時候簽 。你看備王路裡面原文是怎麼講4月26號的 。他他沒有說4月26號這個這一天就一定要簽，他只是告訴你如果能夠簽，4月26號會簽，4月24號如果沒簽，後面不影響，我們繼續就簽這個事去談，反正最終會簽的 。這份協議我說的那個一點他不叫聯司機被賣 。他叫聯世紀已經吃定了特朗普系列被忘路 。我也不指望你啥，但是我也把你吃的死的什麼？首先這個被忘路談的是美國跟烏克蘭經濟夥伴關係，什麼意思？不是政治夥伴，不是軍事夥伴 。不包括安全保障 。嗯 。但是你美國有敢說，如果你不簽這個協議，我就斷了對你烏克蘭的軍事援助，讓俄羅斯來吃掉你嗎？你不敢 。不敢 。你不敢的話，你拿什麼壓烏克蘭去簽這份東西？烏克蘭用出資比例，基金規模，覆蓋項目，後面的分成使用方式，這幾個技術性問題就可以拖你幾年 。對 。每次都確深深的說，哎呀，我不要生氣嘛，我們可以談的 。放心吧，可以談的，但就是你不給我安全保障，你給的條件太過苛刻，我就就是打死不簽，我看你能耐我和 。這就是烏克蘭的核心談判邏輯 。那回到我們之前最早上來，我跟你講那個判斷，你今天特朗普能夠承擔在起你懲罰烏克蘭，導致俄羅斯兵臨基 服成下 。 (buried and planted with sunflowers. On the edge of the sunflower field, dormitories were built, and all the soldiers and officers guarding the missile silos were settled, their families were given jobs. The whole set of things was done . In 2001, Ukraine became a nuclear-weapon-free country . Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum . Including Russia, only China joined later and signed a separate document, but the meaning is the same . Guaranteeing Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty, not being attacked by other nuclear powers with nuclear weapons . This whole set of actions was completed before 2001 . You come out in 2025 and say, so first of all, the Chinese translation has a problem. It doesn't say that Ukraine is now suddenly claiming to be the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal and is voluntarily giving it up to negotiate with you. Instead, it says that the US and Ukraine reaffirmed the need to acknowledge what Ukraine did in the past. To bring up Ukraine's contributions from 24 years ago in 2025, what does that mean? There's nothing to discuss between the two sides . Yes . No achievements . Nothing to promote, no substantial content. That's the first question . Second, what does this "memorandum of understanding" mean? And its content is a memorandum of understanding for the US and Ukraine to sign a mineral agreement next week or around April 26th . Yes . It's just to tell everyone that although we haven't finished talking, although the text of the mineral agreement hasn't been finalized, although the final signing date hasn't been set, although the shares and content of the post-war reconstruction fund haven't been determined, we will definitely sign it . When? We don't know . We're giving a memo to tell everyone, look, we're in what's called a memorandum of understanding? Isn't that a "failed negotiation memorandum"? Yes . Have we talked and then stopped talking? Have we reached an agreement? No . What happens next? Continue talking . Everyone can rest assured, we will definitely continue talking. We signed a memorandum of understanding to continue talking. The content of the memorandum is me . Then why set a time limit? Because it was previously said that it would be signed on April 22nd, and then the final version of the agreement came out as April 26th. Mnuchin said we would strive to sign it around April 26th . Look at the original text of the memorandum of understanding, how does it talk about April 26th? It doesn't say that it must be signed on April 26th. It just tells you that if it can be signed, it will be signed on April 26th. If it's not signed by April 24th, it won't affect anything, we'll continue to discuss signing this matter, and it will eventually be signed . The point I'm making about this agreement is not that Zelenskyy was sold out . It's that Zelenskyy has already cornered Trump with a series of memorandums of understanding . I don't expect anything from you, but I've got you in a death grip on what? First of all, this memorandum of understanding discusses the US-Ukraine economic partnership. What does that mean? Not a political partnership, not a military partnership . It doesn't include security guarantees . Yes . But does the US dare to say that if Ukraine doesn't sign this agreement, they will cut off military aid and let Russia devour Ukraine? You don't dare . You don't dare . If you don't dare, what will you use to pressure Ukraine to sign this thing? Ukraine can drag you on for years with technical issues like the investment ratio, fund size, covered projects, and the later profit-sharing methods . Yes . Every time, they will sincerely say, "Oh, don't be angry, we can talk ." Rest assured, we can talk, but since you don't give me security guarantees and your conditions are too harsh, I'd rather die than sign it, let's see what you can do to me . This is Ukraine's core negotiating logic . Now back to our earlier assessment, can Trump today afford to punish Ukraine, leading to Russian forces besieging Kyiv? Can you .)

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 承擔得起啊 。你承擔的起，你一臉皮後，那烏克蘭就無非就是，但是對於烏克蘭講我真的被俄羅斯兵靈基府，除了對整年司紀不好之外，對烏克蘭來講還能比被你美國完 成這副樣子更糟嗎？不見得你現在美國人準備幹嘛？把我的經濟利益吃乾淨，把我烏克蘭的主 傳領土分成三塊 。我最後只能弄了三分之一，這個三分之一裡面保一個完全的內入性的國家，沒有任何出海口的 。然後還你就給了我留了一條去歐盟的深路，歐盟我傻呀，我我收養那對於無人來說，那 我算一算 。我是不是投降俄羅斯會更快一點？是啊 。直接跟俄羅斯裡面去談，無非就是連世紀怎麼處，怎麼處理，不好處理嘛 。那我們到時候去拿 出一個直在我跟俄羅斯談妥的方案裡面，我至少不用把烏克蘭分成分成三塊吧，最多分成兩塊，對不對？不非就是俄羅斯吃掉那塊地不怎麼處理的問題嘛，對吧？ 那如果說我重建個蘇聯，我整個烏 刊我就回去了，那不變成一塊了嗎？真的呀，他現在這個樣子就是顯示出這個川普政府在類似於像俄 無衝突這種複雜的立元政治風險的議題上，他就真的是不懂 。他不知道怎麼處理 。他玩而脫線了 。他玩砸 那如果是您這樣的一個看法的話，那您覺得這樣的一個被忘路，那一定是責斯基拿捏了川普的心態之後，那現在我安撫一下你，我要簽，那對於川普來說，他簽了之後，那他會把這個東西塑造成本比如說他的一個包裝成他的一個什麼政績，反正紅波子選民你覺得紅他的紅波子選民看得懂這些嗎？ (can afford it? If you can afford it, if you are shameless enough, then for Ukraine, it's nothing more than... but for Ukraine, if I am really besieged by Russian forces in Kyiv, besides being bad for Zelenskyy's entire year, can it be worse for Ukraine than being completely carved up by you, the US, in this way? Not necessarily. What are Americans preparing to do now? Clean up my economic interests, divide my Ukrainian sovereign territory into three parts . In the end, I can only get one-third, and this one-third will be a completely landlocked country with no access to the sea . And then you leave me a difficult path to the EU. Am I stupid, the EU? If I adopt that for no one's benefit, let me calculate . Wouldn't it be quicker for me to surrender to Russia? Yes . Directly negotiate with Russia. It's just a matter of how to deal with Zelenskyy, how to handle it. It's not easy to handle . Then we can come up with a plan that I've negotiated with Russia. At least I don't have to divide Ukraine into three parts, maybe at most two, right? Isn't it just the problem of how Russia handles that piece of land it takes? Right? What if I rebuild the Soviet Union, and my entire Ukraine goes back? Wouldn't it become one piece again? Really, the current situation shows that the Trump administration really doesn't understand complex geopolitical risks like the Russia-Ukraine conflict . He doesn't know how to handle it . He's playing out of his depth . He's messed up . If that's your view, then do you think that with such a memorandum of understanding, Zelenskyy must have grasped Trump's mentality, and now he's trying to appease you by saying he will sign? For Trump, after signing it, will he shape this into, for example, one of his packaged achievements? Anyway, do you think his "redneck" voters can understand these things? )

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 看不懂啊 。你包裝成國內，望路這個他自己不好意思吹哦，貴路這個吹得太破的話，有一個問題，這個被忘路必須和那個礦產協議簽了之後配套一起吹，現在只能吹那個第三大核武庫 。就是讓紅博的選民，所以呢你會發現紅博的選民是很容 誤導的，什麼叫很容易誤導？你想想看啊 。嗯 。美國跟烏克蘭簽一個礦產協議 。然然後這個礦產協議的主要特 等是烏克蘭自願放棄世界第三大核武器庫，各位正在聽的觀眾朋友們，如果你是第一次聽到美國和烏克蘭這兩個國家，你也是第一次來到地球問你個問題 。聽完之後，你會 會不會覺得這份被奧路簽的背景是美國跟烏克蘭在打架？是的 。然後他們打架的原因是因為烏克蘭有世界第三大核武器然後美國打贏了，為什麼烏克蘭放棄了第三大核武器庫，而且烏克蘭跟美國要簽一個礦產協議 。這個事情已經被引導成這個樣子了呀 。就說我我就是不知道一幫人在信分些啥 。這個東西明明是美國跟烏克蘭站在一起跟俄羅斯打，對不對了 。那為什麼總是烏克蘭裡面走出讓步呢？在俄羅斯面前烏克蘭做出讓步就算了，為什麼在美國面前也是烏克蘭在做出然後美國建立的勝利就是我從烏克蘭拿到了礦產，我從烏克蘭拿到了核武器，那難道說這場戰爭的真相就是美國跟俄羅斯合在一起在收拾烏克蘭？而且不是最搞笑的是什麼？最搞笑今天普京還說說了一句我們停火30天不停火三天 。啊不303個30個小時，30個小時 。 (They don't understand . If you package it domestically, he himself will be embarrassed to boast about this memorandum of understanding. If he boasts too much about this "expensive road" [a play on words], there's a problem. This memorandum of understanding must be boasted about in conjunction with the signing of the mineral agreement. Now they can only boast about the third-largest nuclear arsenal . It's to mislead the "redneck" voters. So you'll find that "redneck" voters are very easy to mislead. What does it mean to be easily misled? Think about it . Yes . The US and Ukraine sign a mineral agreement . And then the main special feature of this mineral agreement is that Ukraine voluntarily gives up the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal. Dear listeners, if you are hearing about the US and Ukraine for the first time, and it's also your first time on Earth, let me ask you a question . After listening to this, would you feel that the background to the signing of this memorandum of understanding is that the US and Ukraine are fighting? Yes . And the reason they are fighting is because Ukraine has the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal, and then the US won. Why did Ukraine give up the third-largest nuclear arsenal, and why is Ukraine going to sign a mineral agreement with the US? This matter has already been led in this direction . I just don't know what a group of people are believing and spreading . This thing is clearly about the US and Ukraine standing together to fight Russia, isn't it? Then why is it always Ukraine making concessions? It's understandable for Ukraine to make concessions to Russia, but why is Ukraine also making concessions to the US? And the victory the US is establishing is, "I got minerals from Ukraine, I got nuclear weapons from Ukraine." Could the truth of this war be that the US and Russia are working together to deal with Ukraine? And isn't the funniest thing what Putin said today: "We will have a 30-day ceasefire... no, a three-day ceasefire ." Ah, no, 303... 30 hours, 30 hours .)

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 個小時嘛，就是復活節停火嘛 ，對 ，然後復活節停火就是普京向全世界掌握什麼停火，普京說了算對的，克林姆林公說了算，我想停就停，我想打就打，什麼叫主動權，這就是主動權，這就是主導權 。然後川普還跟還跟他在那很高興的簽了個被普跟烏克蘭很高興的簽了個標路，所以來就覺得說啊，原來搞了半天這場衝突是美國跟俄羅斯混合雙打烏克蘭咯，烏克蘭很牛逼一跳二了 。太封了，我就覺得為什麼俄物戰爭看到現在越看自從川普要進來之後越看越好 ，對 ，我，我感謝一下大家的支持哦，最後老師幫我們稍微稍微短的帶一些吧，因為我看很多朋友很關心這一次，因為在關稅站當下，華人勳到大陸去，然後也非非常關心他跟那個Deep Seek 的創始人梁文峰有沒有見面，但最後是說沒有會面這件事情哦 。老師的一些那個那個是什麼裡面有個有個什麼東西講什麼什麼什麼什麼什麼什麼來說是非者就是是非人啊，不是有一句中國古是那麼說的嗎？什麼什麼什麼什麼時間來說是非的人，然後就是來說是非是的就就是個是非之人 。我是覺得梁文峰見黃人勳完全沒有必要 。就是就是從梁文峰的角度來說，我想不出任何 deep seek 需要在這個時候見黃人勳的必要，黃人勳在這個時候是非常有必要去見d seek 的 。是的 ，這是 。 (hours, that is the Easter ceasefire , yes . And the Easter ceasefire is Putin showing the whole world who controls the ceasefire. Putin has the final say, the Kremlin has the final say. I want to stop, I stop; I want to fight, I fight. What is initiative? This is initiative, this is dominance . Then Trump and Putin happily signed a memorandum of understanding with Ukraine. So, it feels like, "Oh, so all along this conflict has been the US and Russia playing doubles against Ukraine, and Ukraine is so awesome it took on two at once!" It's too absurd. I just feel that the more I watch the Russia-Ukraine war now, especially since Trump wants to get involved, the better it looks , yes . I want to thank everyone for their support. Finally, Professor, please give us a slightly shorter take, because I see many friends are very concerned about this time, as tariffs are in place. Huang Renxun went to the mainland, and everyone is very concerned about whether he met with Liang Wenfeng, the founder of DeepSeek, but it was said that they did not meet . Some of the professor's... what is that saying? There's something in there that says, "Those who speak ill of others are not good people." Isn't there an ancient Chinese saying like that? Those who speak ill of others at any time are themselves the subject of gossip . I think it's completely unnecessary for Liang Wenfeng to meet Huang Renxun . From Liang Wenfeng's perspective, I can't think of any necessity for DeepSeek to meet Huang Renxun at this time. Huang Renxun, on the other hand, very much needs to meet DeepSeek . Yes , that's it .)

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 因為因為江湖傳說這個 deep seek 不是說下一個模型要出來了就像這個 2.2 版的模型，我一直在說 2 版的模型出來之後，如果說這個模型它的性能比那個 trad GPT 現在最新的什麼 4O 啊那些版本性能上面就低那麼一點，更不要說如果性能是超出的啊，性能超出的那就直接就抄啊就瘋了 。那個然後呢明確告訴全世界這個東西是用華為芯片訓練出來不管是什麼一片英偉達都沒有都沒有使用，就是 deepsek 的訓練，大模型的訓練，英偉達不再是一個必要條件 。那黃爾星就可以真的不用穿的身皮了 。認真回去打羅斯吧 。這次就認真穿西裝吧，真的就改穿西裝 然後呢黃軒這次來之前不是被美國人進了那個 H20 不讓賣嘛 H20 不讓賣這個黃人知道就首先英委達立刻就減了二計了 55 億美元的預期收入嘛 是就中國市場的損失就是 55 億美元就是第一 如果對朝古感興趣的我實不敢興趣，但是我前兩天瞄過一眼黃人勳的股價好像是從 150 跌到了 101 吧 對今天還是 101 呢我剛剛看了一下就跌塊了跌了 50 塊，那就是跌了三分一啊 。那跌了三分一，你覺得這個如果這個換方的梁文峰拿出一個這個 DPS 很牛逼的性能比這個 CGPT 可能不相上下，甚至略高一籌的，然後是全部飛音偉達訓練出來的，那華人不得徹底放 。但他的股市就說腰斬有點誇張，但是估計也差 差不 多了吧 。嗯 。所以在這樣的情況下，他需要通過見這個梁文峰去傳達一些東西，我覺得是正常的，但是我覺 從中方的角度上來說，甚至我覺得從梁文峰的角度上來說，我建你塗啥呀？能給我帶來什麼收益嗎？不能帶來什麼收益，甚至你只會污染我 。這就是像有問題的數據會污染整個預療 。 (Because there's a rumor that DeepSeek is about to release its next model, like the 2.2 version. I've been saying that after the 2.0 model came out, if its performance was just a little lower than the latest versions of GPT, like 4O, not to mention if its performance exceeded them... if it exceeded them, then they would just copy it directly and go crazy . And then, clearly tell the world that this thing was trained using Huawei chips, regardless of anything, not a single Nvidia chip was used. For DeepSeek's training, large model training, Nvidia is no longer a necessary condition . Then Huang Renxun really wouldn't need to wear that human skin anymore . Seriously go back to doing your own thing . This time, seriously wear a suit, really just switch to wearing suits . And before Huang Renxun came this time, wasn't Nvidia's H20 restricted from being sold by the Americans? Knowing that H20 couldn't be sold, Nvidia immediately reduced its expected revenue by $5.5 billion, right? Yes, the loss in the Chinese market is $5.5 billion, that's the first point . If you are interested in the stock market, I'm really not interested, but I glanced at Huang Renxun's stock price a couple of days ago, it seemed to have fallen from 150 to 101, right? Yes, it's still 101 today, I just looked, it dropped quite a bit, 50 points, that's a third . A drop of a third. Do you think if Liang Wenfeng on the other side comes up with a DeepSeek model with very powerful performance, possibly comparable to or even slightly better than CGPT, and it's all trained using non-Nvidia chips, then Huawei wouldn't be completely liberated? Although saying his stock market value will be halved is a bit of an exaggeration, it's probably not far off . Yes . So, in this situation, it's normal that he needs to meet with Liang Wenfeng to convey some things. But from the Chinese perspective, and even from Liang Wenfeng's perspective, I think, why bother meeting? What benefits can it bring me? It can't bring any benefits, in fact, you will only pollute me . It's like how problematic data can pollute the entire training .)

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 庫一樣，我現在跟你見面只會污染我 。花錢底下最時候有什麼好見面呢？你有什麼花招你放馬過來對吧，你也沒有必要向我談什麼東西，這兩個人之間說實話也沒什麼好說的 。也沒有什麼好說，但你就梁風說我們這個算法機構對著你英偉達優化了一下，憑啥呀？現在這個狀態下我要優化肯定是對著華為優化了一下呀，這肯定的嘛對吧 ，我覺得所以這個很正常，而且呢雙方對於這個中國市場，那你中國市場你黃人拿什麼東西出來？你能拿什麼東西出來？我說實話，華人勳手上東西，他的真正的核心的流片的東西基本上就是放在那個台積電那 對吧 ，然後你黃人勳如果要這個跟中國學表態，那很簡單啊，請要要把你的技術互稱拿出來，你拿得出來吧，你捨得你又沒有，你又你又是一個本質上靠這套就是有強知識產權保障的這種封閉的生態系統來進行成核的這麼一個體系，那這個時候跟著走開源入線的梁文峰，你是希望梁文峰下一代模星開始配合你走必原化嗎？所以我覺 他們兩個人真的，我說實話，我一開始就摔息說他們要見面，我還有點有點吃，說他們見了嗎？塗什麼想不出來 。那說沒見，那我覺 很正常而且中方應該說對他的態度也是比較應該用坦然來形容應該用坦然來信 用黃人勳呢是比較著急的 。因為就像外國的媒體現在意識到了一點就是所有對中國的芯片運都在幫助中國發展自主芯片 是的 你除了讓我們變得更加強大 除了讓我們想盡一切辦法去克服你對我提出的這種約 你你不會起到任何實質性的效果 。那在這個時候為什麼好怕你的為什麼好怕你就淡然處之你愛來就來 對吧 以後你跟我說想辦法，那你自己拿出態度來，我這邊門是敞開的，進我的門怎麼進你都是知道的，就是你美國那邊在那抽風，你自己把那個抽的好，我感謝一下大家支持哦，謝謝雲熙發來的支持，他說奧巴馬比川普聰明多了，當年奧巴馬內希望美聯儲降西寬鬆，然後奧巴馬就學了此前一個總統的方法，請美聯儲主席到白宮吃 於是奧巴馬請了當時美聯儲主席耶倫到白宮吃飯，然後美聯儲就開始降息了，華爾街和金融市場看到請吃飯也非非常聰明，降西預期一下子就拉上來了，都不需要美聯儲放風來調整市場預期了 。對啊 。這個就是正常的情況呀 。就說你要去解決這方面的問題，你要遵循基本的遊 戲規 普對的問題就是在沒有足夠實力的情況下，用一種事實上違反美國基本這些制度設計底層邏輯和遊戲規則的方式去 印上 。就川普的無知不是說僅僅在對外戰略上無知，僅僅在中美問題上無知，它是一個系統和結構性的物 。 (Just like problematic data pollutes the entire training data set, my meeting with you now will only pollute me . Why bother meeting at the lowest point? If you have any tricks, just use them, right? You don't need to talk to me about anything. Frankly speaking, there's nothing to say between the two of you . There's nothing to say. But you, Liang Wenfeng, saying your algorithm organization has optimized for Nvidia, why? In the current situation, if I'm optimizing, I'm definitely optimizing for Huawei, that's for sure, right? I think so this is very normal. Moreover, regarding the Chinese market, what can you, Huang Renxun, bring out? What can you offer? Frankly speaking, what Huang Renxun has in hand, his real core chip designs, are basically with TSMC, right? And if you, Huang Renxun, want to express your stance to China, it's very simple, please bring out your reciprocal technology. Can you bring it out? Are you willing? You're not. You are essentially relying on a closed ecosystem with strong intellectual property protection for your core business. In that case, with Liang Wenfeng following the open-source path, do you expect Liang Wenfeng's next-generation model to start cooperating with you in a proprietary way? So I think the two of them really... frankly, I was surprised at first when I heard they were supposed to meet. I wondered if they did meet, and what they could possibly discuss . Since they didn't meet, I think it's very normal. And the Chinese side should be said to have a relatively... should be described as calm in their attitude towards Huang Renxun, who is more anxious . Because, just like foreign media are now realizing, all chip transports to China are helping China develop its own chips. Yes, you are only making us stronger. You are only making us try every possible way to overcome the restrictions you impose on us. You won't achieve any substantial effect . So why be so afraid of you at this time? Why be so afraid? Just treat it calmly. You can come if you want, right? If you tell me later that you want to find a solution, then you yourself need to show your attitude. My door is open, you know how to enter. It's just that your US side is acting crazy. If you can sort that out, I'll be grateful for everyone's support. Thank you Yunxi for your support. He said Obama was much smarter than Trump. Back then, Obama wanted the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and ease monetary policy. So, Obama learned from a previous president's method and invited the Federal Reserve Chairman to the White House for a meal. Obama invited the then Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen to the White House for dinner, and then the Federal Reserve started lowering interest rates. Wall Street and the financial markets, seeing the invitation to dinner, were also very smart. The expectation of lower interest rates immediately surged, without the Federal Reserve even needing to release any signals to adjust market expectations . Yes . That's the normal situation . It's about following the basic rules of the game when you want to solve these kinds of problems. Trump's problem is that without sufficient strength, he is trying to impose things in a way that actually violates the underlying logic and rules of the game of basic US institutions . Trump's ignorance is not just ignorance in foreign strategy, not just ignorance in US-China relations. It's a systemic and structural thing .)

• 沈老師 (Professor Shen): 質呀 。所以他既不尊重對外的這些遊戲規則，他也不尊重對內的遊戲規則，他既不對中國人講規矩和講道理，他對於美國的政治經，他也不講規矩和不講道理 。嗯 。就是說他的這種不了解情況，對於體系念的這種不知道，不熟悉和不尊重是結構性 。就他就是一個華盛頓的圈外 。在這樣的情況下，他身邊沒有任何一個靠譜的，我就說其實所謂的奧 。 (Yes . So he doesn't respect these external rules of the game, and he doesn't respect the internal rules of the game. He doesn't talk about rules and reason with the Chinese, and he also doesn't talk about rules and reason with the US political establishment . Yes . That is to say, his lack of understanding of the situation, his lack of knowledge, unfamiliarity, and disrespect for the system are structural . He is an outsider in Washington . In this situation, there isn't a single reliable person around him. I would say that the so-called .)

This detailed recount covers the main questions posed by the host and Professor Shen's comprehensive responses throughout the provided transcript. As mentioned, there isn't a separate Q&A session at the end of this excerpt; the entire discussion functions as a series of questions and answers.

Here is a brief of the talk.